Monday, July 28, 2008

YTD Market Report - 1st Half 2008

June Market Report for NA (Naples) - BN (Bonita Springs) - ES (Estero)










Closed Sales:
• YTD closed units up 6% from 2007. Volume down approximately 14%.
• Closings for the month of June are essentially same as June 2007 (546 this year vs 550 in June 2007).
• Median sales price down almost 16% compared to YTD June 2007. Average sales price down approximately 19%.
• Closed units under $500,000 represent 70% of all closings YTD. For the same period 2007, this segment represented 61% of closings.
• Closed sales over $1 million represent approximately 13% of the YTD June market. For the same period 2007, this category comprised 17% of all closed sales. (526 properties in 2007 vs 412 in 2008).

Pended Sales:
• June pended sales units are up 46% over June 2007. (Naples up almost 50% and Bonita / Estero up 34%)
• YTD pended sales exceed 2007 by 10%.
• Pended sales over $2 million are down 32% from 2007.
• Pended sales under $500,000 up 36%.

Listings: • Number of new listings taken in June approximately same as June 2007 (1,976 vs 1,974)
• New listings taken YTD June down approximately 5% compared to same period 2007.
• Active listings on July 1, 2008 for combined NA-BN-ES areas is 13,551 (7,055 single family and 6,496 condos).
This represents a 4% decline from May."

*"This report represents the combined Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero market. Numbers may vary among various GEO codes so be sure to research individual market segments carefully.

Disclaimer: All information from Sunshine MLS. Accuracy is deemed correct but not warranted."

View the Full Market Report by Clicking Here

Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!



Thursday, July 24, 2008

Naples Area... "Florida's Last Paradise"

Naples still deserves its real-estate nickname of “Florida’s last paradise” despite the building boom says an AARP article slated for publication in their September/October article labeled "Healthiest Hometowns."

“The area has hung on to its small-town feel: its beaches and art scene (more than 134 galleries in the vicinity) are often voted tops in the nation,” the article says. “And for link lovers, it’s heaven: Naples-Marco Island has the second most golf holes per capita in the country. In our survey, residents got high scores for regular exercise, healthy eating, and not smoking, so it’s no surprise that the area has one of the lowest cancer mortality rates going.”

Not surprisingly, the article mentions the area’s real estate market.
“The downside is high housing prices and a high cost of living,” the articles states. “Naples has been hard hit by the foreclosure crisis — but that means you might be able to find some bargains here.”

Mike Reagen, president of the Naples Area Chamber of Commerce, said the AARP research dovetails with what author Richard Florida said in his best-seller, “Who’s Your City?” where he ranks Naples as among the top 10 places for people 65 and older.

The author and professor of business and creativity at Toronto University says where people choose to live has a profound effect on all aspects of their lives. “It sounds reinforcing,” Reagen said of AARP’s finding about Naples and Marco Island.
In the next two to three years, the next wave of the baby boom generation will be looking for a place to retire and this area will be appealing to many, Reagen said.

The area has great infrastructure of good medical care, the arts, recreational amenities, and an ideal climate that will attract more people, he said.

What Gary Elliott, president of the Marco Island Chamber of Commerce, sees all the time is that people enjoy living in the region, plus they enjoy working here.
“My theory is when people arrive in Naples and Marco Island, they are euphoric,” Elliott said. “People came here with a good attitude.” When people relocate or retire to the region, they came from successful careers and they continue to lead vibrant lives here, he said. That helps with longevity.

He did a survey last month for the Marco chamber and reported that more younger families are moving to Marco, comparing 2000 census data to his own research. He went to the schools on Marco and private schools to find out how many children are now living in Marco.

In 2000, there were 1,622 children under 18 living in Marco and today that figure is 1,900 — a 17 percent increase, he said. While Naples young population has grown exponentially as well triggering the construction of dozens of area schools since 2000 it hasn't been

I think in the next census we will see a lot of younger families,” he said. The Naples area is a "...great place to live."
What’s also notable is the Internet and other technology makes it possible for people who work in consulting and other non-location jobs can live anywhere they want, he said.

Real estate activity in Marco has been solid for properties in the lower price range of under-$350,000 for inland properties, he said.

The AARP finding could help bring more people to Naples/Marco Island for relocating or retiring but Arlene Carozza, Realtor and president of the Naples Area Board of Realtors, said she doesn’t believe this region has more foreclosures than anywhere else and could have less.

“When we get good news like that, that it’s a wonderful place to live, it certainly helps all of us,” she said. “No 10. We will take that. It says something for the area.”

She came from the Orlando area and was amazed by the array of cultural amenities in the area for the city of this size, especially with the Naples Philharmonic Center for the Arts.

“Naples is still small-town like with white sand beaches and gorgeous water and shopping,” she said.

Naples Population:
314,649

Median housing price:
$637,100

Average number of sunny days:
264 per year

Healthy bragging rights:
Long walks on the beach pay off, as residents of this sunny spot score second highest on our longevity scale.

Real estate is selling steadily and has been since January, she said. “We have had a steady upgrowth. More people are purchasing homes and it’s not just the beach area, it’s right across the board,” she said.

Despite that, Naples does have a lot of retirees.

AARP also found Naples/Marco Island ranks second among a larger group of cities for longest life expectancy of 80.97 years, behind Ames, Iowa, with a life expectancy of 81.02. The Collier County Health Department backs up the region’s life expectancy standing, which in 2002 stood at 82.9. Life expectancy for the United States for the same period was 77.4 years, according to a 2002 report from the department. “We are pleased to see the dedication of the health community recognized,” Dr. Joan Colfer, executive director of the health department said in a statement about the AARP finding. She credits the local medical community for lowering cancer rates and adding to residents’ longevity. “In addition, we applaud Collier County citizens for being proactive in their personal health and wellness,” she said.

Ann Gardner, Naples’ community representative for the American Cancer Society, learned of Naples’ standing on the “Good Morning, America” TV show Wednesday and wasn’t surprised. “It’s definitely pretty cool to see that,” she said. “It means people are taking care of themselves.” (Also appeared on the Today Show, see video below.)



See an expanded article on www.NaplesNews.com

See the AARP article at www.AARPmagazine.org


Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!



Tuesday, July 22, 2008

What's a blog? ...Customer Service in the 21st Century!

Many of you if not most have heard of a blogging. The practice of stateing information and often times opinions online on a daily basis has exploded. Everyone from youg kids to college students to corporate CEO's seem to be gettting in on the action these days. Providing nearly instantaneous information and feedback has become part of the increasinglty fast paced and technological culture. Blogging allows anyone the ability to reach outside their geographical community and find & communicate with others that share the same interests, opinions and goals. It also provides people resources online that are targeted to a specific interest. Last night an news peice aired on NBC Nightly News about some Fortune 500 companies that are blogging to disseminate information and solicit feedback that may otherwise be too costly. at least 60 Fortune 500 companies have blogs and the number is growing every day! For those that think they are too old or not technical enough to have a blog I can tell you that they are both easy and free!

You can watch the peice by clicking on the video below

The idea of bringing a personal touch through the internet may seem foreign to some. This personal attention in an increasingly corporate and disconnected world is helping to bridge the span between companines and their customers across great distances. As long as it may have been since you sat down and wrote a full letter to someone many miss the personal attention and freedom to express themselves that blog's and the comments they solicit can provide!

For more about blogging and some of the websites that offer this free service please feel free to ask me. Many professions, associations and orginazations have blog sites that are specific but anyone can also set up personal or political ones on sites like this one at www.blogger.com. Other sites include www.Localism.com or for those with company or personal websites on www.MySpace.com they have a good blog function as well!

Happy blogging... & comments Welcome!

Garren Grup, REALTOR... Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Ben Stein "Were Not in a Recession...They Sell Fear!"

Ben Stein, an economist and the son of an economist who coined the phrase "Voodoo Economics" which you may recall hearing in the way he's better known to some, as the economics teacher in "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" repeating, "Bueller, Bueller!"

This time Ben Stein is trying to wake consumers with some key points:
1) Were not in a recession! (per it's definition of 2 quarters of negative growth)

2) Weak dollar is driving a boom in U.S. exports.

3) The growing economies of China & India are really beginning to drive the world economy.

4) It would be rare for commodities demand to be rising and other services falling at the same time.

5) Inflation is hedged by purchasing "REAL ASSETS"... like Real Estate!















Ben Stein:
Buy Index Funds, Real Estate
Wednesday, July 9, 2008 4:26 PM

Economist and commentator Ben Stein has some calming words of advice: By any serious definition, we're just not in a recession. And we might not enter one, either, regardless of the stock market right now, Stein writes in his online column.

Investors should pretty much ignore all the media talk about bear markets and instead keep investing, particularly through index funds and depressed assets like real estate, he says. Stein points out that bear markets are fairly common. We've had nine by one count since the mid-1960s. But just five actual recessions happened in that same time span. So, a bear market now doesn't mean recession is a done deal, Stein argues.

"That is to say, the stock market predicts 10 out of five recessions. Not such a great record," says Stein.

"The truth is that while the economy is clearly slowing down, we are not yet in a recession."

Stein cites the general rule of two consecutive negative quarters signaling a recession — which hasn’t happened yet, and might not. The U.S. has churned out very, very low growth, but it has stayed positive so far.

"As I keep saying, if anyone can call anything a recession, the whole subject loses all intellectual or factual meaning. This too could happen — a real recession — but it has not happened yet."

Stein says there are plenty of sectors of the economy that show surprising strength, despite the horrid picture painted by the collapse of financials, U.S. automakers, and the airlines.

The weak dollar has helped U.S. exports boom. Mining and agriculture are getting a lift from high commodity prices. Healthcare and the public sector are chugging along. Military spending is likely to be sustained.

"The government is running an immense deficit, and this is stimulative," Stein says.

But it's the larger world — the growing economies of China, India and elsewhere — that is beginning to really drive things. "It would be extremely rare for there to be a spectacular worldwide demand for commodities along with a serious fall in demand for other factors in an economy," Stein says.
"That is, it would be rare for demand to be both rising and falling at the same time. It could happen, but it would be rare."

As for what to do next, Stein says buy. Broad indexes of stocks are a good strategy, and keeping plenty of cash on hand, too. "None of us can control the economy. Thus, we just have to keep swimming in the roiled waters," Stein says.

Economies go through cycles, as always. The headlines will be positive again, soon enough. Buying indexes means investors can ride out the bad news and profit when things turn up.

As for cash, the risk is inflation, Stein warns. In that case, it's better to get into a real asset that’s depressed and thus likely to appreciate.

For instance, insurance giant Prudential has reportedly sold the Chrysler Building in New York to a sovereign wealth fund controlled by the government of Abu Dhabi. The price, according to Bloomberg News, was likely $800 million. Prudential acquired the building when it took control of an Atlanta, Ga. real estate fund, TMW Real Estate Group. That fund bought the Manhattan landmark in 2001 for $300 million.
Prudential's investors have seen a 20 percent return after taxes on this and other real estate sales in recent years, according to a spokesperson for the company. That gain is despite the decline in New York real estate from last year's peak.

"The best bet usually is what has gone down the most, and that, for now, is real estate," Stein writes. Where people fail in real estate, is in failing to buy, he says, citing money manager and friend Phil DeMuth.

Meanwhile, understanding your own reaction to fear — made worse by the media — is the key. "Know that the headline writers want to whip you up and make you crazy about the economy," Stein says. "They sell fear. Stay calm and stay well to do."
© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

See the full article on MoneyNews.com Click Here

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Delivering Information with Noteworthy Results!

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

2nd Quarter Update of Sales & Prices


I wanted to remind people with a photograph of what we all come to Southwest Florida for before providing some information on the market.













...Weather, Beaches, Boating & Sunsets!

This is just a hip shot of the make up of the BN/ES and NA MLS Inventory as of today, July 1st, 2008!

Very interesting numbers for both buyers & sellers!

Total number of listings as of this morning in Bonita/Estero and Naples, all residential types = 13,552

Total number of closed sales over the last 12 months in BN/ES, NA, resid. = 5,362

Current YRS/MNTHS of Inventory in BN/ES and NA, Residential = 2.52 yrs/30.3 mths


Market MakeUp Within Price Ranges BN/ES and NA, All Residential Types

0-250K 4,131 or 30% of the entire inventory

250-350 2,572 or 19% of the entire inventory

350-500 2,282 or 17% of the entire inventory

500-750 1,826 or 13% of the entire inventory

750-1M 992 or 7% of the entire inventory

1M-2M 1,135 or 8% of the entire inventory

2M-3M 442 or 3% of the entire inventory

3M-5M 219 or less than 2%

5M-10M 113 or less than 1%

10M 18 or not that much, in fact as a bonus if you are looking over 10 million we can do it all in a day or two.


Pending sales 2nd Qtr of 07 vs. 2nd Qtr of 08 are up 35%, that is BN/ES and NA, all residential areas.

So 66% of the inventory is below 500k, and a whopping 49% is below 350k.

These are some pretty interesting numbers for those that know the Naples & Bonita Springs market and think prices are still too high.

Hopefully these numbers provide an update on how we stand as of July 1st and further my commitment to providing the most up to date statistics and market news Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero southwest Florida market.

Delivering Noteworthy Results!

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Monday, June 16, 2008

Further Evidence of a Normal Market Return

The May market analysis continues to support the views of many that the Southwest Florida market is steadily improving and has returned to what is considered a “Historical Norm”. It was quite obvious to many that the supply had exceeded demand in Southwest Florida which elevated prices beyond fair market value in 2004 & 2005. In many communities current prices are now below “replacement cost” as some analysts have begun predicting that the credit crunch and negative national housing news is now causing an over correction on the downside in the same way the bubble drove prices up.
See some of my “Property Search Links” on the top right and discover why this is an Award Winning website in the entire state of Florida. It’s always up-to-date, easy to use and interactive for your own preferences.

Additional notes regarding May Market Stats Report:

Average number of closings for the month of May for all years 2000 – 2008 (excluding 2004 and 2005) is 611. May 2008 closings (617) continue to support the theory that the market is returning to historical norms.

May closed sales up 2% over May 2007. JRW closed sales for May up 29%.

In April we reported that YTD pended sales were approximately even with YTD April 2007. In May YTD pended sales jumped ahead of prior year by approximately 6%. JRW YTD May pended sales are up 28% over 2007. We anticipate that the market will continue to gain over 2007 throughout the remainder of the year and will carefully monitor this trend over the summer season.

JRW listings continue to outsell those of other brokers. Through May 2008, 363 JRW listings have closed (through MLS) compared to: Downing Frye 329; Coldwell Banker 256; Premier 229 and Prudential 152.

JRW agents continue to significantly outperform other agents in both average units and average volume produced per agent. There are some very good reasons why this happens and some corresponding benefits to our clients and customers:

(1) JRW employs only full-time, career oriented professionals. Adherence to the highest ethical and professional standards is a condition for continued affiliation. Advantage to clients and customers: Knowledgeable professionals, equipped with the most current information and technology, are actively involved in helping to guide buying and selling decisions.

(2) JRW provides in-house training and professional development opportunities unequalled in the market. Advantage to clients and customers: From the highly experienced to the novice agent, on-going education is provided at all levels. Changes in the market, legal requirements, technology, and marketing all have an impact on the successful sales effort. Our programs continually address all of these areas and more.

(3) JRW professionals have access to the most current market data and statistics. Advantage to clients and customers: The ability to benefit from current, factual information about the market today as well as historical comparisons. Buying and selling decisions can be made based on facts and their relevance to a particular individual situation, rather than on hype or one person’s opinion.

See the exact numbers by clicking here.

Keep up the great Team, and have a Sizzling Summer Selling!!!

Commentary provided by Dorothy D. Babcock, John R. Wood C.O.O.

I look forward to receiving any comments or questions regarding anything on my blog below!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Analysis of differences in home-price reports

A point that I've been adamant about when speaking to clients over the last few months has begun to gain some traction in articles online, in the paper and on NBC-2.com locally as well as CNBC.com. That is, the market here is improving and has probably over corrected for the most part and also that all real estate is local and you need to educate yourself on what is going on in that market. That is not to say nothing else effects it, but how it effects it can be very different. Just because the Midwest is mostly in a slump due to manufacturing their are and will always be people that have the desire and means to purchase in Southwest Florida (Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero, Fort Myers, etc). Opportunity in resort markets and the stock market is often clouded by avarice (or greed). It seems when the market was good the sellers were unreasonable and the buyers were eager to bend to the terms. Since the downturn in the market it now seems to have turned around and many buyers are not only looking for a great buy but they are specifically seeking "blood in the water" to squeezer out every last bit of value. In either respect when was getting what was perceived as a "good value" not enough?

In terms of the difference in housing numbers being reported, A recent article by Matt Carter of Inman News analyzes the differences between the housing numbers reported by OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight), NAR (the National Association of Realtors) and the numbers reported by the S & P/Case-Shiller index. In short, Carter summarizes that their differences are easily explained, and they boil down to this:

1) Case-Shiller and OFHEO look at repeat purchases and exclude new-home purchases, but OFHEO also throws in appraisals that are generated when people refinance their homes. As we have all become very cognizant of lately, what a house will appraise for and what a house will actually sell for on the market can be very different things.

2) OFHEO doesn't consider transactions involving loans that are too big or too risky to be guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, and acknowledges that homes with these mortgages on the upper and lower price ranges are seeing bigger price declines than the homes it tracks.

3) NAR looks at sales of existing homes listed by MLSs, and reports median home prices, which reduces the impact of price volatility in upper price ranges.

The result is that the Case-Shiller index can show more extreme swings in price -- both up and down -- than NAR or OFHEO's numbers.

Read the entire article : Click Here

Refer Garren & Expect Noteworthy Results!

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Markets Stabilize in Southwest Florida

I’ve heard a number of negative comments lately about some of the positive news that has recently been circling on the news and in various articles, some of which are below. I think the best way to respond to those that believe the news media is being over stated is with hard data and figures.

I believe many outside the real estate industry would be surprised to learn that the Naples & Bonita Springs market have seen significant sales over the past 5 months! In the over $1 million market there were 203 single family homes that sold in the first 5 months of this year at an average price just under $2.2 million. At the same time there were 165 condos over $1 million that sold for an average price of $1.8 million. This accounts for nearly $740 million in sales in just the over $1 million price point with the most expensive home selling at $12.9 million and the most expensive condo selling at $9 million. There are certainly both homes and condos that are significantly less that $1 million, but I thought this would illustrate that there are a significant number of sales happening in this market in contrast to many that believe nothing is going on! Also of note was the fact that on average(both single family and condo) properties sold at 89% of their asking price, so on a $2.2 million asking price the property was actually selling at just under $2 million, a $200,000 discount.

The Fort Myers-Cape Coral area has been a little slower in rebounding but home sales spiked in April 2008, up 41% over April 2007, so we are definitely seeing a market improvement.

Prices have been coming down in both markets and this is certainly a big reason for the surge in sales. As you can see above though, the majority of sellers have lowered their asking prices and buyers on average are paying within 11% of asking price. Those seeking to pick up a property at a significant discount over 2005 pricing is possible now as the majority of sellers have lowered their prices to reflect the current market.

There are sales taking place and those in the market to purchase should begin to look and take advantage of the best buys in terms of location, view and designer finishes.

Southwest Florida is the southern most point in the United States with easy access to I-75 and Southwest Florida International Airport. As the mildest climate in the peak winter months it will continue to be a sought after destination. Let me assist you in finding the best buys relative to the current market values and your desires, before the prime properties are picked over.

Warm Regards,

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Click Here for a list of my featured Homes on www.BuyUpNaples.com

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Positive News or Media Hype?

Quite a bit of attention has been focused on the national real estate market in the last few years by both the news media and consumers as we saw prices run up and then come back down. Somewhere along the way, many of us, including those in the real estate business, lost sight of the most important fact. That is, “All Real Estate is local!”
Sure, you have heard that before and the national market certainly has some effect on local real estate. Tuning in to the right information and tuning out the information that really does not apply is increasingly difficult in today’s society when we are bombarded by sooooo many messages. There have been some positive articles both locally and nationally on the Naples real estate market lately. By no means is the market back to the way it was at the peak of the market, nor would any of us want it to be! Sure we want the economy to be better, our homes and vacation properties to be worth more and gas prices to be less.

During the run-up in prices many buyers in this market refused to buy because they couldn’t find what they wanted(lack of inventory) at the “right” price which really meant they wanted to spend less and get more. We all want more for less, it’s just human nature and of course “consumer behavior”. Many of those buyers waited and waited to purchase and watched prices climb out of reach over the past 6 years. Now that we have seen an average decline in prices of 10%-30% sales are on the upswing again as noted in the news (and my previous blogs below). What many don’t realize is that many of the prices in today’s market are actually below the construction cost while still being nearly 30% above where they were in 2002.

Let’s apply a little e logic in our decision making and consider the following. Even if you could duplicate the building today it would cost more than the current prices. Inflation and the growth of emerging economies has strained resources around the world as we’ve all witnessed first-hand at the grocery store and gas pump.
Just as we certainly overshot the prices on the way up, we have now overshot on the way down. Many buyers today refuse to accept that this is possible and waiting on prices to decline with the hope they will continue to defy market economics because of what they are hearing about national housing market. On the other hand many have realized that the abundance of opportunities in the market given that we have significantly more inventory than we did a few years ago. It’s now much easier to find the right property with a great view and location at a reasonable price.

Now back to my original reason for writing this blog. The Naples & Bonita Springs market is primarily a 2nd home market. Those with the desire and means to purchase should be entering the market over the next several months. Those that want a vacation home and are still sitting on the sidelines are making a big gamble with very poor odds. With interest rates expected to rise 1% over the next year due to inflation any further price decline (that some are waiting for) is almost certain to be wiped out by an increase in interest rates. For example the payment on a $300,000 property at 6% interest(30yr) is $1,800. If you were waiting for another $30,000 decrease (10% decline) but the interest rate went up even .5% you only saved $90 per month. Is the risk/reward of losing a property that you really want and is currently available worth the cost of waiting? Only the buyer can answer that question but in these terms it defies the logic of those that remain on the sidelines trying to time when the market has really bottomed out. You can’t time any market, just like the top or bottom of the stock market. All you can do is decide if you have the means and ability to pay for it and if the price is “fair”.

Let me bring some of the logic and statistics above to your real estate transaction and allow me to filter out some of the media hype that is designed to trigger emotions in all of us!
All good real estate consultants analyze the current market based on the past trends (which are the best indicators), what is currently happening in terms of price on comparable properties and what best represents your desires. My loyalty is in providing you with the hard numbers and statistics as well as their interpretation to best inform you so you can make the best decision possible.

I look forward to hearing from you when you’re ready to seek the services of a professional. I welcome any comments and thoughts you have below in the mean time.

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Achieving your real estate desires through technology with Noteworthy Results!