Fort Myers, FL: April Home Sales Up 32% From Last Year

Inventory of unsold homes declining


We have continued to see an increase in sales and the amount of positive press about the local real estate market in Southwest Florida over the past few weeks as new sales data has come in. I think the most interesting statistic to come out is the current absorption of inventory which I think has been under publicized and provides both buyers and sellers with a more comprehensive view of the market. The most current absorption rate for single family homes is 9.9 months considerably lower than the 23 months of inventory that we saw in December 2007.

Special to Florida Weekly-
The Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers & the Beach (which includes Bonita Springs & Estero) reports that a total of 684 existing single family houses were sold in April. That's a 32 percent increase in the number of single family houses sold compared to last April. In addition, 1176 single family homes are pending, reflecting a 47.2 percent upswing since April, 2007. Most encouraging are the absorption(supply in months) rates, as the current absorption rate for single family homes is 9.9 months, well below December 2007 when there was nearly 23 months of inventory up for sale.

The median sales price is $180,000, up 21 percent from 2003 levels, but down from year ago by 16 percent. Moderately priced inventories are moving as buyers are taking advantage of the lower interest rates and the affordable property values in the market. Based on the 4-month trend, it is anticipated that existing single family home sales will out-pace 2007 sales by 30 percent. "It is apparent that buyers are seeing the value of homes in Southwest Florida and are entering the market at increasing numbers."

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Economic Forecasts Signal Improving Market & Higher Interest Rates Over the Next 18 Months!

The National Association of Business Economics (NABE's) forecast that the credit crunch and housing decline should subside by year end. Inflation is expected to cool while also oil and food prices settle down. They also expect the stock market climbs by 10% in 2009. Of special note in regards to lending and housing, the FED is expected to raise rates by a full percentage point in 2009. With the Naples market in the early stages of a recovery it seems as though any further price decline to benefit potential buyers will be counterbalanced by the FED's effort to counter inflation by increasing interest rates that are currently at historic lows. The best values, prices, properties and inventory will slowly be brought down by the increasing activity that has continued to increase month over month in comparison to 2007 and year-to-date comparisons.


**The May 2008 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 52 professional forecasters. (See last page for listing.) The survey, covering the outlook for 2008 and 2009, was taken Apr. 17-May 1. The NABE Outlook originated in 1965 and is one of three taken by NABE; the others are the NABE Industry Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for people who use economics in their work. NABE has more than 2,300 members and 41 chapters nationwide. Lynn Reaser, Bank of America; Robert Fry, DuPont; and Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, conducted the analysis for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the analysts and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. May be reprinted in whole or in part with credit given to NABE.

Warm Regards,

Garren Grup, REALTOR

www.BuyUpNaples.com for the most up-to-date list of Homes available in Southwest Florida. **Listings are updated every 4 hours on this website!

"Naples is Back!"

“Naples is Back!” … This was the declaration of Toll Brothers Home Builders CEO on Tuesday May 13th, 2008 http://www.cnbc.com/id/24600543

The whole segment is interesting but the interview with Robert Toll starts at 4 minutes and specific quote that Naples is Back starts just after 5:20


For months I’ve been having discussions about the incredible values in the Southwest Florida market that are in more cases than not below the cost of construction. The agents, lenders and other local real estate experts I’ve been talking to see the local market gradually getting better. The thing that seems to elude all of us is the number of people that are still holding out to try and time the market. You can no more time the real estate market than you can the stock market. One expert that I spoke with put it best when he said “are buyers waiting for higher prices or higher interest rate!” This rhetorical question best sums up the state of interest rates, the real estate market and the economy. With the Federal Reserve expected to pause in it’s cutting of the Federal funds rate and long term inflation that effects what interest rate you can obtain on a loan expected to continue rising as they have been since mid February there is truly nothing to wait for if you are in the market for a new home in Naples, Bonita Springs or Estero. At this point it is possible that prices could deteriorate a little more but if interest rates are on the rise at the same time any money you save will likely be futile and the best values may slowly be disappearing. National builders have began to raise prices over the last few weeks and one builder that was severely effected in the last year raised prices by 2% over the last several weeks. This was highlighted this week on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC when he interviewed Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll. Toll Brothers currently operates in 22 states and for Robert Toll to shatter hopes of a recovery for every city and state that they operate in and elevate Naples is a significant plug for the local market especially given that the Naples area is often lumped in with Miami(South Florida) which has been severely impacted by the dozens of high-rise properties that overbuilt that market.

If you’re in the market for a home, the next several months over the summer will be the best time to pick up one of those great values to take advantage of the low prices and historically low interest rates before they disappear!

The Housing Crisis IS Over!

I know we’ve all heard that the housing crisis was over before but the jitters in the credit markets was an unexpected event that exacerbated the over supply in the year following the housing slump. Southwest Florida began to soften in 2004 following the active hurricane season and the housing market peaked nationwide in July 2005. The effects of almost 4 years of declining home starts, the run up in prices that led to the affordability crisis and the credit crisis, have all helped to bring down the costs of real estate substantially! Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers has many great bargains that in many cases are even below the construction cost.

So, why is the true bottom here and now an opportune time to purchase real estate?
See the article on the market indicators at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html?mod=WSJBlog

5 New Rules for Home Buyers

By Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine
Last Updated: May 12, 2008: 12:39 PM EDT

(Money Magazine) -- There's no telling how long the housing crisis will drag on. Here's what you need to know before you start shopping in a rocky market.

Rule 1: You can't time the bottom
Rule 2: One reason to buy now - mortgage rates
Rule 3: Another reason to buy - rates on big mortgages
Rule 4: Don't buy cheap; buy good schools
Rule 5: Make sure your agent has your interest at heart


See the complete article here at CNNMoney.com

5 New Rules for Home Sellers

Whether you're buying or selling, the real estate game has changed. To win, you've got to learn a new playbook.

By Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine
Last Updated: May 12, 2008: 12:39 PM EDT

(Money Magazine) -- Selling a home is a lot trickier than it used to be - here's how to be smart about pricing, presentation and incentives.

Rule 1: Get real about price
Rule 2: Vet your agent - especially if it's you
Rule 3: Pimp your house - hire a home stager
Rule 4: Cash will make your home look even better
Rule 5: Underwater? Learn to swim


See the complete article here at CNNMoney.com