*Use the links below to view listings in a specific city or create your own search Here.*
Garren Grup, REALTOR®, GRI...
Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers!
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Properties are selling in Southwest Florida... video from NBC (below)
Sales are up 80% in Lee County, Bonita Springs Estero, Fort Myers, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island & Captiva Island!
*Use the links below to view listings in a specific city or create your own search Here.*
Garren Grup, REALTOR®, GRI...
Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers!
*Use the links below to view listings in a specific city or create your own search Here.*
Garren Grup, REALTOR®, GRI...
Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers!
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Wall Street Shadow Market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Which financial market is largely unknown, not regulated, 5 to 6 times the size of the $10 Trillion US deficit and can’t be estimated within $10 trillion dollars?
See the Wall Street answer you may have missed at http://naplesbeachfronthomes.activerain.com/post/727338/A-MUST-SEE-for-Everyone-in-Real-Estate-that-missed-the-6-Minutes-program-on-Sunday- Warm regards, GRI: Graduate Realtor Institute
www.BuyUpNaples.com for the most up-to-date list of Homes available in
John R. Wood REALTORS
Toll Free: (800) WOOD-180
www.BuyUpNaples.com or www.SellBonitaSprings.com or www.NaplesFLonline.com
Friday, October 3, 2008
Are Buyers missing the Best Values by focusing on foreclosures?
Our company President, Phil Wood did a radio interview on August 26th, 2008 and updated us on what the market stats show for year-to-date 2008 in regards to foreclosures since that is a hot topic in the media right now. Below is the summary in the Naples/Bonita/Estero area:
- Thru July of this year, there have been 3,754 closings in SunshineMLS, in the specified areas. (a few more than our previous stats since some closings have now been added to the system.
- Only 163 of these were foreclosures, which is a very small number as compared to what media reports would lead one to believe. (4.3%)
- 45% of the foreclosures were in Golden Gate City and Golden Gate Estates, so there are only 90 closed foreclosure sales in ALL other areas.
- 84% of the 163 foreclosures sold at $300,000 or less, so it is primarily confined to the lower price ranges.
Obviously, there are parts of Lee County where the problem is much more severe, specifically Lehigh Acres and Cape Coral. These two areas have thousands of lots and/or homes, have traditionally been very reasonably priced, and many owners have now lost their jobs. There were also many investors that bought in those neighborhoods during the irrational period of 2004-2005, and have now simply walked away from their investment.
So overall, it is not a big issue in the Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero area.
The areas in Golden Gate mentioned above are primarily single family homes and more year round, full time, working residents as opposed to the gorgeous beach and golf course properties that most envision when they think of Naples................................................................................. In addition, many of our young first-time home buyers want to be closer in than this, where their jobs are, they can socialize with friends and hopefully capitalize on the great values that they hope will appreciate because of their appeal to both full time and seasonal residents when they are ready to move up.
Great values previal but are the foreclosures really where they are?
Garren Grup, REALTOR®...
Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!
**Note: There are a few additional foreclosures in the area that may not go thru MLS. Additionally, there are tons of potential shorts sales that may also be potential foreclosures, although many banks are now standing on their heads to try and avoid taking back properties.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Election 2008... A New Canidate being discussed for President!
My Grass Roots effort to bring real estate and the other major issues to light has catapulted a new candidate into the media's eye (and I don't mean Palin). This is a real canidate that will be the agent of Fix, not just the agent of Change!
Channel 3 News Reporting on:
Channel 3 News Reporting on:
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Tropical Fay Went Away... Thankfully not a Hurricane!
Tuesday, August 19, 2008, 12 noon EST - Tropical storm Fay never reached hurricane strength, and is now past Collier County, currently in the Lee and Hendry County areas. In general, the storm was not a major event. 
Damage is very light in most areas----tree limbs and a very occasional downed tree. Structural damage to buildings was very light in most of the Naples/Bonita/Ft. Myers area, although we did hear of some problems toward the central part of the state, around Clewiston.
Winds were lighter than predicted, usually in the 20mph to 40mph range, with some gusts as high as 70mph near Immokalee. Storm surge was lighter than predicted, and even rain was lighter than predicted, although we will likely continue to have rain for the rest of today. Flooding was also lighter than expected. Most businesses in the area were closed today, but some grocery stores, pharmacies, and even Burger King and Dunkin Doughnuts remained open.
The biggest problem is loss of power for a number of homes, with the last report saying 28,000 homes in Collier County. Power is expected to be restored much faster this time as compared to Wilma in Collier County, and Charlie in Lee County from years past. So in summary, there was very minor damage, despite the efforts of some media to over dramatize the storm. Things are expected to be back to normal by the end of the week.
Despite reports to the contrary Fay has been a bleesing and there was very minimal damage and no tornados in the Collier or Lee county area. Tropical Storm Fay actually has and will have an added benefit of bringing some much needed rain to all of the southeast. Florida and Georgia have been battling Alabama to release water from a reervoir that supplies drinking water to 3 million people. The 4-10 inches will substantially help refill reservoirs and raise lake levels on Lake Okeechobee and surrounding lakes as well as help curb the 2 year drought that has been the 2 driest back to back years on record. Lake Okeechobee as of a month ago was a little more than 4ft below it's average level.
Lake Okeechobee, which is second largest freshwater lake in the contiguous United States and is also the liquid heart of the Everglades. South Florida depends on the 730-square-mile lake during dry periods, when it can be used as a reservoir.
See more on Fay's drought relief at Southwest Florida News
Garren Grup, REALTOR ®...
Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!
Damage is very light in most areas----tree limbs and a very occasional downed tree. Structural damage to buildings was very light in most of the Naples/Bonita/Ft. Myers area, although we did hear of some problems toward the central part of the state, around Clewiston.
Winds were lighter than predicted, usually in the 20mph to 40mph range, with some gusts as high as 70mph near Immokalee. Storm surge was lighter than predicted, and even rain was lighter than predicted, although we will likely continue to have rain for the rest of today. Flooding was also lighter than expected. Most businesses in the area were closed today, but some grocery stores, pharmacies, and even Burger King and Dunkin Doughnuts remained open.
The biggest problem is loss of power for a number of homes, with the last report saying 28,000 homes in Collier County. Power is expected to be restored much faster this time as compared to Wilma in Collier County, and Charlie in Lee County from years past. So in summary, there was very minor damage, despite the efforts of some media to over dramatize the storm. Things are expected to be back to normal by the end of the week.
Despite reports to the contrary Fay has been a bleesing and there was very minimal damage and no tornados in the Collier or Lee county area. Tropical Storm Fay actually has and will have an added benefit of bringing some much needed rain to all of the southeast. Florida and Georgia have been battling Alabama to release water from a reervoir that supplies drinking water to 3 million people. The 4-10 inches will substantially help refill reservoirs and raise lake levels on Lake Okeechobee and surrounding lakes as well as help curb the 2 year drought that has been the 2 driest back to back years on record. Lake Okeechobee as of a month ago was a little more than 4ft below it's average level.
Lake Okeechobee, which is second largest freshwater lake in the contiguous United States and is also the liquid heart of the Everglades. South Florida depends on the 730-square-mile lake during dry periods, when it can be used as a reservoir.
See more on Fay's drought relief at Southwest Florida News
Garren Grup, REALTOR ®...
Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!
Monday, July 28, 2008
YTD Market Report - 1st Half 2008
June Market Report for NA (Naples) - BN (Bonita Springs) - ES (Estero)
Closed Sales:
• YTD closed units up 6% from 2007. Volume down approximately 14%.
• Closings for the month of June are essentially same as June 2007 (546 this year vs 550 in June 2007).
• Median sales price down almost 16% compared to YTD June 2007. Average sales price down approximately 19%.
• Closed units under $500,000 represent 70% of all closings YTD. For the same period 2007, this segment represented 61% of closings.
• Closed sales over $1 million represent approximately 13% of the YTD June market. For the same period 2007, this category comprised 17% of all closed sales. (526 properties in 2007 vs 412 in 2008).
Pended Sales:
• June pended sales units are up 46% over June 2007. (Naples up almost 50% and Bonita / Estero up 34%)
• YTD pended sales exceed 2007 by 10%.
• Pended sales over $2 million are down 32% from 2007.
• Pended sales under $500,000 up 36%.
Listings: • Number of new listings taken in June approximately same as June 2007 (1,976 vs 1,974)
• New listings taken YTD June down approximately 5% compared to same period 2007.
• Active listings on July 1, 2008 for combined NA-BN-ES areas is 13,551 (7,055 single family and 6,496 condos).
This represents a 4% decline from May."
*"This report represents the combined Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero market. Numbers may vary among various GEO codes so be sure to research individual market segments carefully.
Disclaimer: All information from Sunshine MLS. Accuracy is deemed correct but not warranted."
View the Full Market Report by Clicking Here
Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!
Closed Sales:
• YTD closed units up 6% from 2007. Volume down approximately 14%.
• Closings for the month of June are essentially same as June 2007 (546 this year vs 550 in June 2007).
• Median sales price down almost 16% compared to YTD June 2007. Average sales price down approximately 19%.
• Closed units under $500,000 represent 70% of all closings YTD. For the same period 2007, this segment represented 61% of closings.
• Closed sales over $1 million represent approximately 13% of the YTD June market. For the same period 2007, this category comprised 17% of all closed sales. (526 properties in 2007 vs 412 in 2008).
Pended Sales:
• June pended sales units are up 46% over June 2007. (Naples up almost 50% and Bonita / Estero up 34%)
• YTD pended sales exceed 2007 by 10%.
• Pended sales over $2 million are down 32% from 2007.
• Pended sales under $500,000 up 36%.
Listings: • Number of new listings taken in June approximately same as June 2007 (1,976 vs 1,974)
• New listings taken YTD June down approximately 5% compared to same period 2007.
• Active listings on July 1, 2008 for combined NA-BN-ES areas is 13,551 (7,055 single family and 6,496 condos).
This represents a 4% decline from May."
*"This report represents the combined Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero market. Numbers may vary among various GEO codes so be sure to research individual market segments carefully.
Disclaimer: All information from Sunshine MLS. Accuracy is deemed correct but not warranted."
View the Full Market Report by Clicking Here
Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Naples Area... "Florida's Last Paradise"
Naples still deserves its real-estate nickname of “Florida’s last paradise” despite the building boom says an AARP article slated for publication in their September/October article labeled "Healthiest Hometowns."
“The area has hung on to its small-town feel: its beaches and art scene (more than 134 galleries in the vicinity) are often voted tops in the nation,” the article says. “And for link lovers, it’s heaven: Naples-Marco Island has the second most golf holes per capita in the country. In our survey, residents got high scores for regular exercise, healthy eating, and not smoking, so it’s no surprise that the area has one of the lowest cancer mortality rates going.”
Not surprisingly, the article mentions the area’s real estate market.
“The downside is high housing prices and a high cost of living,” the articles states. “Naples has been hard hit by the foreclosure crisis — but that means you might be able to find some bargains here.”
Mike Reagen, president of the Naples Area Chamber of Commerce, said the AARP research dovetails with what author Richard Florida said in his best-seller, “Who’s Your City?” where he ranks Naples as among the top 10 places for people 65 and older.
The author and professor of business and creativity at Toronto University says where people choose to live has a profound effect on all aspects of their lives. “It sounds reinforcing,” Reagen said of AARP’s finding about Naples and Marco Island.
The area has great infrastructure of good medical care, the arts, recreational amenities, and an ideal climate that will attract more people, he said.
What Gary Elliott, president of the Marco Island Chamber of Commerce, sees all the time is that people enjoy living in the region, plus they enjoy working here.
“My theory is when people arrive in Naples and Marco Island, they are euphoric,” Elliott said. “People came here with a good attitude.” When people relocate or retire to the region, they came from successful careers and they continue to lead vibrant lives here, he said. That helps with longevity.
He did a survey last month for the Marco chamber and reported that more younger families are moving to Marco, comparing 2000 census data to his own research. He went to the schools on Marco and private schools to find out how many children are now living in Marco.
In 2000, there were 1,622 children under 18 living in Marco and today that figure is 1,900 — a 17 percent increase, he said. While Naples young population has grown exponentially as well triggering the construction of dozens of area schools since 2000 it hasn't been
Real estate activity in Marco has been solid for properties in the lower price range of under-$350,000 for inland properties, he said.
The AARP finding could help bring more people to Naples/Marco Island for relocating or retiring but Arlene Carozza, Realtor and president of the Naples Area Board of Realtors, said she doesn’t believe this region has more foreclosures than anywhere else and could have less.
“When we get good news like that, that it’s a wonderful place to live, it certainly helps all of us,” she said. “No 10. We will take that. It says something for the area.”
She came from the Orlando area and was amazed by the array of cultural amenities in the area for the city of this size, especially with the Naples Philharmonic Center for the Arts.
“Naples is still small-town like with white sand beaches and gorgeous water and shopping,” she said.
Naples Population:
314,649
Median housing price:
$637,100
Average number of sunny days:
264 per year
Healthy bragging rights:
Long walks on the beach pay off, as residents of this sunny spot score second highest on our longevity scale.
Real estate is selling steadily and has been since January, she said. “We have had a steady upgrowth. More people are purchasing homes and it’s not just the beach area, it’s right across the board,” she said.
Despite that, Naples does have a lot of retirees.
AARP also found Naples/Marco Island ranks second among a larger group of cities for longest life expectancy of 80.97 years, behind Ames, Iowa, with a life expectancy of 81.02. The Collier County Health Department backs up the region’s life expectancy standing, which in 2002 stood at 82.9. Life expectancy for the United States for the same period was 77.4 years, according to a 2002 report from the department. “We are pleased to see the dedication of the health community recognized,” Dr. Joan Colfer, executive director of the health department said in a statement about the AARP finding. She credits the local medical community for lowering cancer rates and adding to residents’ longevity. “In addition, we applaud Collier County citizens for being proactive in their personal health and wellness,” she said.
Ann Gardner, Naples’ community representative for the American Cancer Society, learned of Naples’ standing on the “Good Morning, America” TV show Wednesday and wasn’t surprised. “It’s definitely pretty cool to see that,” she said. “It means people are taking care of themselves.” (Also appeared on the Today Show, see video below.)
See an expanded article on www.NaplesNews.com
See the AARP article at www.AARPmagazine.org
Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!
“The area has hung on to its small-town feel: its beaches and art scene (more than 134 galleries in the vicinity) are often voted tops in the nation,” the article says. “And for link lovers, it’s heaven: Naples-Marco Island has the second most golf holes per capita in the country. In our survey, residents got high scores for regular exercise, healthy eating, and not smoking, so it’s no surprise that the area has one of the lowest cancer mortality rates going.”
Not surprisingly, the article mentions the area’s real estate market.
“The downside is high housing prices and a high cost of living,” the articles states. “Naples has been hard hit by the foreclosure crisis — but that means you might be able to find some bargains here.”
Mike Reagen, president of the Naples Area Chamber of Commerce, said the AARP research dovetails with what author Richard Florida said in his best-seller, “Who’s Your City?” where he ranks Naples as among the top 10 places for people 65 and older.
The author and professor of business and creativity at Toronto University says where people choose to live has a profound effect on all aspects of their lives. “It sounds reinforcing,” Reagen said of AARP’s finding about Naples and Marco Island.
In the next two to three years, the next wave of the baby boom generation will be looking for a place to retire and this area will be appealing to many, Reagen said.
The area has great infrastructure of good medical care, the arts, recreational amenities, and an ideal climate that will attract more people, he said.
What Gary Elliott, president of the Marco Island Chamber of Commerce, sees all the time is that people enjoy living in the region, plus they enjoy working here.
“My theory is when people arrive in Naples and Marco Island, they are euphoric,” Elliott said. “People came here with a good attitude.” When people relocate or retire to the region, they came from successful careers and they continue to lead vibrant lives here, he said. That helps with longevity.
He did a survey last month for the Marco chamber and reported that more younger families are moving to Marco, comparing 2000 census data to his own research. He went to the schools on Marco and private schools to find out how many children are now living in Marco.
In 2000, there were 1,622 children under 18 living in Marco and today that figure is 1,900 — a 17 percent increase, he said. While Naples young population has grown exponentially as well triggering the construction of dozens of area schools since 2000 it hasn't been
I think in the next census we will see a lot of younger families,” he said. The Naples area is a "...great place to live."What’s also notable is the Internet and other technology makes it possible for people who work in consulting and other non-location jobs can live anywhere they want, he said.
Real estate activity in Marco has been solid for properties in the lower price range of under-$350,000 for inland properties, he said.
The AARP finding could help bring more people to Naples/Marco Island for relocating or retiring but Arlene Carozza, Realtor and president of the Naples Area Board of Realtors, said she doesn’t believe this region has more foreclosures than anywhere else and could have less.
“When we get good news like that, that it’s a wonderful place to live, it certainly helps all of us,” she said. “No 10. We will take that. It says something for the area.”
She came from the Orlando area and was amazed by the array of cultural amenities in the area for the city of this size, especially with the Naples Philharmonic Center for the Arts.
“Naples is still small-town like with white sand beaches and gorgeous water and shopping,” she said.
Naples Population:
314,649
Median housing price:
$637,100
Average number of sunny days:
264 per year
Healthy bragging rights:
Long walks on the beach pay off, as residents of this sunny spot score second highest on our longevity scale.
Real estate is selling steadily and has been since January, she said. “We have had a steady upgrowth. More people are purchasing homes and it’s not just the beach area, it’s right across the board,” she said.
Despite that, Naples does have a lot of retirees.
AARP also found Naples/Marco Island ranks second among a larger group of cities for longest life expectancy of 80.97 years, behind Ames, Iowa, with a life expectancy of 81.02. The Collier County Health Department backs up the region’s life expectancy standing, which in 2002 stood at 82.9. Life expectancy for the United States for the same period was 77.4 years, according to a 2002 report from the department. “We are pleased to see the dedication of the health community recognized,” Dr. Joan Colfer, executive director of the health department said in a statement about the AARP finding. She credits the local medical community for lowering cancer rates and adding to residents’ longevity. “In addition, we applaud Collier County citizens for being proactive in their personal health and wellness,” she said.
Ann Gardner, Naples’ community representative for the American Cancer Society, learned of Naples’ standing on the “Good Morning, America” TV show Wednesday and wasn’t surprised. “It’s definitely pretty cool to see that,” she said. “It means people are taking care of themselves.” (Also appeared on the Today Show, see video below.)
See an expanded article on www.NaplesNews.com
See the AARP article at www.AARPmagazine.org
Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
What's a blog? ...Customer Service in the 21st Century!
Many of you if not most have heard of a blogging. The practice of stateing information and often times opinions online on a daily basis has exploded. Everyone from youg kids to college students to corporate CEO's seem to be gettting in on the action these days. Providing nearly instantaneous information and feedback has become part of the increasinglty fast paced and technological culture. Blogging allows anyone the ability to reach outside their geographical community and find & communicate with others that share the same interests, opinions and goals. It also provides people resources online that are targeted to a specific interest. Last night an news peice aired on NBC Nightly News about some Fortune 500 companies that are blogging to disseminate information and solicit feedback that may otherwise be too costly. at least 60 Fortune 500 companies have blogs and the number is growing every day! For those that think they are too old or not technical enough to have a blog I can tell you that they are both easy and free!
You can watch the peice by clicking on the video below
The idea of bringing a personal touch through the internet may seem foreign to some. This personal attention in an increasingly corporate and disconnected world is helping to bridge the span between companines and their customers across great distances. As long as it may have been since you sat down and wrote a full letter to someone many miss the personal attention and freedom to express themselves that blog's and the comments they solicit can provide!
For more about blogging and some of the websites that offer this free service please feel free to ask me. Many professions, associations and orginazations have blog sites that are specific but anyone can also set up personal or political ones on sites like this one at www.blogger.com. Other sites include www.Localism.com or for those with company or personal websites on www.MySpace.com they have a good blog function as well!
Happy blogging... & comments Welcome!
Garren Grup, REALTOR... Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!
You can watch the peice by clicking on the video below
The idea of bringing a personal touch through the internet may seem foreign to some. This personal attention in an increasingly corporate and disconnected world is helping to bridge the span between companines and their customers across great distances. As long as it may have been since you sat down and wrote a full letter to someone many miss the personal attention and freedom to express themselves that blog's and the comments they solicit can provide!
For more about blogging and some of the websites that offer this free service please feel free to ask me. Many professions, associations and orginazations have blog sites that are specific but anyone can also set up personal or political ones on sites like this one at www.blogger.com. Other sites include www.Localism.com or for those with company or personal websites on www.MySpace.com they have a good blog function as well!
Happy blogging... & comments Welcome!
Garren Grup, REALTOR... Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Ben Stein "Were Not in a Recession...They Sell Fear!"
Ben Stein, an economist and the son of an economist who coined the phrase "Voodoo Economics" which you may recall hearing in the way he's better known to some, as the economics teacher in "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" repeating, "Bueller, Bueller!"
This time Ben Stein is trying to wake consumers with some key points:
1) Were not in a recession! (per it's definition of 2 quarters of negative growth)
2) Weak dollar is driving a boom in U.S. exports.
3) The growing economies of China & India are really beginning to drive the world economy.
4) It would be rare for commodities demand to be rising and other services falling at the same time.
5) Inflation is hedged by purchasing "REAL ASSETS"... like Real Estate!
Ben Stein:
Buy Index Funds, Real Estate
Wednesday, July 9, 2008 4:26 PM
Economist and commentator Ben Stein has some calming words of advice: By any serious definition, we're just not in a recession. And we might not enter one, either, regardless of the stock market right now, Stein writes in his online column.
Investors should pretty much ignore all the media talk about bear markets and instead keep investing, particularly through index funds and depressed assets like real estate, he says. Stein points out that bear markets are fairly common. We've had nine by one count since the mid-1960s. But just five actual recessions happened in that same time span. So, a bear market now doesn't mean recession is a done deal, Stein argues.
Stein cites the general rule of two consecutive negative quarters signaling a recession — which hasn’t happened yet, and might not. The U.S. has churned out very, very low growth, but it has stayed positive so far.
"As I keep saying, if anyone can call anything a recession, the whole subject loses all intellectual or factual meaning. This too could happen — a real recession — but it has not happened yet."
Stein says there are plenty of sectors of the economy that show surprising strength, despite the horrid picture painted by the collapse of financials, U.S. automakers, and the airlines.
The weak dollar has helped U.S. exports boom. Mining and agriculture are getting a lift from high commodity prices. Healthcare and the public sector are chugging along. Military spending is likely to be sustained.
But it's the larger world — the growing economies of China, India and elsewhere — that is beginning to really drive things. "It would be extremely rare for there to be a spectacular worldwide demand for commodities along with a serious fall in demand for other factors in an economy," Stein says.
As for what to do next, Stein says buy. Broad indexes of stocks are a good strategy, and keeping plenty of cash on hand, too. "None of us can control the economy. Thus, we just have to keep swimming in the roiled waters," Stein says.
Economies go through cycles, as always. The headlines will be positive again, soon enough. Buying indexes means investors can ride out the bad news and profit when things turn up.
As for cash, the risk is inflation, Stein warns. In that case, it's better to get into a real asset that’s depressed and thus likely to appreciate.
For instance, insurance giant Prudential has reportedly sold the Chrysler Building in New York to a sovereign wealth fund controlled by the government of Abu Dhabi. The price, according to Bloomberg News, was likely $800 million. Prudential acquired the building when it took control of an Atlanta, Ga. real estate fund, TMW Real Estate Group. That fund bought the Manhattan landmark in 2001 for $300 million.
Prudential's investors have seen a 20 percent return after taxes on this and other real estate sales in recent years, according to a spokesperson for the company. That gain is despite the decline in New York real estate from last year's peak.
"The best bet usually is what has gone down the most, and that, for now, is real estate," Stein writes. Where people fail in real estate, is in failing to buy, he says, citing money manager and friend Phil DeMuth.
Meanwhile, understanding your own reaction to fear — made worse by the media — is the key. "Know that the headline writers want to whip you up and make you crazy about the economy," Stein says. "They sell fear. Stay calm and stay well to do."
© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.
See the full article on MoneyNews.com Click Here
Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Information with Noteworthy Results!
This time Ben Stein is trying to wake consumers with some key points:
1) Were not in a recession! (per it's definition of 2 quarters of negative growth)
2) Weak dollar is driving a boom in U.S. exports.
3) The growing economies of China & India are really beginning to drive the world economy.
4) It would be rare for commodities demand to be rising and other services falling at the same time.
5) Inflation is hedged by purchasing "REAL ASSETS"... like Real Estate!
Ben Stein:
Buy Index Funds, Real Estate
Wednesday, July 9, 2008 4:26 PM
Economist and commentator Ben Stein has some calming words of advice: By any serious definition, we're just not in a recession. And we might not enter one, either, regardless of the stock market right now, Stein writes in his online column.
Investors should pretty much ignore all the media talk about bear markets and instead keep investing, particularly through index funds and depressed assets like real estate, he says. Stein points out that bear markets are fairly common. We've had nine by one count since the mid-1960s. But just five actual recessions happened in that same time span. So, a bear market now doesn't mean recession is a done deal, Stein argues.
"That is to say, the stock market predicts 10 out of five recessions. Not such a great record," says Stein.
"The truth is that while the economy is clearly slowing down, we are not yet in a recession."
Stein cites the general rule of two consecutive negative quarters signaling a recession — which hasn’t happened yet, and might not. The U.S. has churned out very, very low growth, but it has stayed positive so far.
"As I keep saying, if anyone can call anything a recession, the whole subject loses all intellectual or factual meaning. This too could happen — a real recession — but it has not happened yet."
Stein says there are plenty of sectors of the economy that show surprising strength, despite the horrid picture painted by the collapse of financials, U.S. automakers, and the airlines.
The weak dollar has helped U.S. exports boom. Mining and agriculture are getting a lift from high commodity prices. Healthcare and the public sector are chugging along. Military spending is likely to be sustained.
"The government is running an immense deficit, and this is stimulative," Stein says.
But it's the larger world — the growing economies of China, India and elsewhere — that is beginning to really drive things. "It would be extremely rare for there to be a spectacular worldwide demand for commodities along with a serious fall in demand for other factors in an economy," Stein says.
"That is, it would be rare for demand to be both rising and falling at the same time. It could happen, but it would be rare."
As for what to do next, Stein says buy. Broad indexes of stocks are a good strategy, and keeping plenty of cash on hand, too. "None of us can control the economy. Thus, we just have to keep swimming in the roiled waters," Stein says.
Economies go through cycles, as always. The headlines will be positive again, soon enough. Buying indexes means investors can ride out the bad news and profit when things turn up.
As for cash, the risk is inflation, Stein warns. In that case, it's better to get into a real asset that’s depressed and thus likely to appreciate.
For instance, insurance giant Prudential has reportedly sold the Chrysler Building in New York to a sovereign wealth fund controlled by the government of Abu Dhabi. The price, according to Bloomberg News, was likely $800 million. Prudential acquired the building when it took control of an Atlanta, Ga. real estate fund, TMW Real Estate Group. That fund bought the Manhattan landmark in 2001 for $300 million.
Prudential's investors have seen a 20 percent return after taxes on this and other real estate sales in recent years, according to a spokesperson for the company. That gain is despite the decline in New York real estate from last year's peak.
"The best bet usually is what has gone down the most, and that, for now, is real estate," Stein writes. Where people fail in real estate, is in failing to buy, he says, citing money manager and friend Phil DeMuth.
Meanwhile, understanding your own reaction to fear — made worse by the media — is the key. "Know that the headline writers want to whip you up and make you crazy about the economy," Stein says. "They sell fear. Stay calm and stay well to do."
© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.
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Garren Grup, REALTOR
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