Fort Myers, FL: April Home Sales Up 32% From Last Year

Inventory of unsold homes declining


We have continued to see an increase in sales and the amount of positive press about the local real estate market in Southwest Florida over the past few weeks as new sales data has come in. I think the most interesting statistic to come out is the current absorption of inventory which I think has been under publicized and provides both buyers and sellers with a more comprehensive view of the market. The most current absorption rate for single family homes is 9.9 months considerably lower than the 23 months of inventory that we saw in December 2007.

Special to Florida Weekly-
The Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers & the Beach (which includes Bonita Springs & Estero) reports that a total of 684 existing single family houses were sold in April. That's a 32 percent increase in the number of single family houses sold compared to last April. In addition, 1176 single family homes are pending, reflecting a 47.2 percent upswing since April, 2007. Most encouraging are the absorption(supply in months) rates, as the current absorption rate for single family homes is 9.9 months, well below December 2007 when there was nearly 23 months of inventory up for sale.

The median sales price is $180,000, up 21 percent from 2003 levels, but down from year ago by 16 percent. Moderately priced inventories are moving as buyers are taking advantage of the lower interest rates and the affordable property values in the market. Based on the 4-month trend, it is anticipated that existing single family home sales will out-pace 2007 sales by 30 percent. "It is apparent that buyers are seeing the value of homes in Southwest Florida and are entering the market at increasing numbers."

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Economic Forecasts Signal Improving Market & Higher Interest Rates Over the Next 18 Months!

The National Association of Business Economics (NABE's) forecast that the credit crunch and housing decline should subside by year end. Inflation is expected to cool while also oil and food prices settle down. They also expect the stock market climbs by 10% in 2009. Of special note in regards to lending and housing, the FED is expected to raise rates by a full percentage point in 2009. With the Naples market in the early stages of a recovery it seems as though any further price decline to benefit potential buyers will be counterbalanced by the FED's effort to counter inflation by increasing interest rates that are currently at historic lows. The best values, prices, properties and inventory will slowly be brought down by the increasing activity that has continued to increase month over month in comparison to 2007 and year-to-date comparisons.


**The May 2008 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 52 professional forecasters. (See last page for listing.) The survey, covering the outlook for 2008 and 2009, was taken Apr. 17-May 1. The NABE Outlook originated in 1965 and is one of three taken by NABE; the others are the NABE Industry Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for people who use economics in their work. NABE has more than 2,300 members and 41 chapters nationwide. Lynn Reaser, Bank of America; Robert Fry, DuPont; and Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, conducted the analysis for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the analysts and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. May be reprinted in whole or in part with credit given to NABE.

Warm Regards,

Garren Grup, REALTOR

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