Thursday, November 6, 2008

The Bet That Blew Up Wall Street!... from 60 Minutes

New-age Bucketshops... the Financial Weapons of Mass destruction!

I have to say 60 minutes got it right AGAIN on Sunday night.

A few weeks ago I published a video-blog on "Wall Street's Shadow Market" about the bundling and selling of mortgages and the so-called insurance that was used to assure investors they were safe.


This last Sunday they did a follow-up story titled "The Bet that Blew Up Wall Street". Many of my real estate colleagues, fellow bloggers and customers appreciated the explanations provided. This new peice was on what can best be described as the "side bets" about whether a companies stock price will go up or down, also known as a credit derivative or credit default swap because these bets could be made without actually owning the stock, similar to betting on a football game.


The housing boom and economic downturn that followed has been blamed on just about everyone, from the consumers to those in the real estate and mortgage industries. The shift seems to know be shifting to Congress, Wall Street, the SEC and even former President Bill Clinton for his downsizing of government and goal of expanding home-ownership.


Their is no reason whay a national foreclosure rate of 6% is having such a devastating effect on the economy when 94% of homeowners are making their monthly mortgage payments. The downfall of these large financial institutions was because they made so many side bets they didn't keep track of or save the money for that they had to pay out on the insurance policy (side bets) that had been made on everything from stocks, to mortgage defaults, to the decline of Wall Streets solvency. Just Today CNBC reiterated that out of 80 million mortgages less than 6 million were behind or not paying their mortgage. I know the numbers don't add up but NOT everyone has a mortgage!


So, where did all the money go? ...It was paid out to the super-rich that had made some of these bets and exacerbated the downturn while destroying some of the largest institutions on Wall Street and triggered payoffs that made these bettors "fantastically richer" at the expense of these institutions, their shareholders, and nearly everyone whether they were invested in Wall Street or not. The video below is the single best explanations of where all the money went and why we should have known better. These explanations serve to inform us about what has going on below the surface of Wall Street and the Federal Government and why more government oversight is needed. These side bets effected everything from shareholders to employees of every company that has been adversely affected by the slowing economy, job lay-offs. Yet the speculation continues and is likely the cause of the ballooning and plummeting gas prices. Just today Volkswagen increased by more than $100 per share, up 86% in a single day while at the same time the DOW finished up almost 900 point which was the largest one-day gain in history!
The video below & article on CBS.com is aptly titled The Bet that Blew Up Wall Street:

See my previous video blog Wall Street's Shadow Market

You can also see my other blog for additional articles Here


Garren Grup, REALTOR®, GRI...


Noteworthy Results in Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Properties are selling in Southwest Florida... video from NBC (below)

Sales are up 80% in Lee County, Bonita Springs Estero, Fort Myers, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island & Captiva Island!



*Use the links below to view listings in a specific city or create your own search Here.*


Garren Grup, REALTOR®, GRI...


Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers!

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Wall Street Shadow Market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Which financial market is largely unknown, not regulated, 5 to 6 times the size of the $10 Trillion US deficit and can’t be estimated within $10 trillion dollars?

 

See the Wall Street answer you may have missed at http://naplesbeachfronthomes.activerain.com/post/727338/A-MUST-SEE-for-Everyone-in-Real-Estate-that-missed-the-6-Minutes-program-on-Sunday-

 

 

Warm regards,

Garren Grup, REALTOR, GRI

GRI: Graduate Realtor Institute



www.BuyUpNaples.com for the most up-to-date list of Homes available in Southwest Florida**Listings are updated every 4 hours on this website!

 

John R. Wood REALTORS
Mobile: (239) 289-8619
Toll Free: (800) WOOD-180

 

 

www.BuyUpNaples.com or www.SellBonitaSprings.com or www.NaplesFLonline.com

 

Friday, October 3, 2008

Are Buyers missing the Best Values by focusing on foreclosures?

Foreclosures, short sales, REO, real estate owned, best values, cheapest homesI have to wonder if many of our buyers are missing the best values by focusing on short sales and foreclosures. Everyone wants a deal and many want to offer .30 to .50 cents on the dollar based on the estimated appraisal. In our market this reflects somewhere between 15% to 40% of what the previous owner paid in 2004-2005. We have defined this period in our area as the "irrational period" when people bought anything they could get under contract. I have to ask myself if finding the best value may actually mean ignoring the foreclosures and searching for owners that have owned for a longer period of time(8-10 years) and just need to sell, based on the statistice below?


Our company President, Phil Wood did a radio interview on August 26th, 2008 and updated us on what the market stats show for year-to-date 2008 in regards to foreclosures since that is a hot topic in the media right now. Below is the summary in the Naples/Bonita/Estero area:



  • Thru July of this year, there have been 3,754 closings in SunshineMLS, in the specified areas. (a few more than our previous stats since some closings have now been added to the system.

  • Only 163 of these were foreclosures, which is a very small number as compared to what media reports would lead one to believe. (4.3%)

  • 45% of the foreclosures were in Golden Gate City and Golden Gate Estates, so there are only 90 closed foreclosure sales in ALL other areas.

  • 84% of the 163 foreclosures sold at $300,000 or less, so it is primarily confined to the lower price ranges.


Obviously, there are parts of Lee County where the problem is much more severe, specifically Lehigh Acres and Cape Coral. These two areas have thousands of lots and/or homes, have traditionally been very reasonably priced, and many owners have now lost their jobs. There were also many investors that bought in those neighborhoods during the irrational period of 2004-2005, and have now simply walked away from their investment.


So overall, it is not a big issue in the Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero area.


The areas in Golden Gate mentioned above are primarily single family homes and more year round, full time, working residents as opposed to the gorgeous beach and golf course properties that most envision when they think of Naples................................................................................. In addition, many of our young first-time home buyers want to be closer in than this, where their jobs are, they can socialize with friends and hopefully capitalize on the great values that they hope will appreciate because of their appeal to both full time and seasonal residents when they are ready to move up.


Great values previal but are the foreclosures really where they are?




Garren Grup, REALTOR®...

Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!


**Note: There are a few additional foreclosures in the area that may not go thru MLS. Additionally, there are tons of potential shorts sales that may also be potential foreclosures, although many banks are now standing on their heads to try and avoid taking back properties.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Election 2008... A New Canidate being discussed for President!

My Grass Roots effort to bring real estate and the other major issues to light has catapulted a new candidate into the media's eye (and I don't mean Palin). This is a real canidate that will be the agent of Fix, not just the agent of Change!

Channel 3 News Reporting on:



Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Tropical Fay Went Away... Thankfully not a Hurricane!

Tuesday, August 19, 2008, 12 noon EST - Tropical storm Fay never reached hurricane strength, and is now past Collier County, currently in the Lee and Hendry County areas. In general, the storm was not a major event. Tropical Storm Fay NOT a Hurricane

Damage is very light in most areas----tree limbs and a very occasional downed tree. Structural damage to buildings was very light in most of the Naples/Bonita/Ft. Myers area, although we did hear of some problems toward the central part of the state, around Clewiston.

Winds were lighter than predicted, usually in the 20mph to 40mph range, with some gusts as high as 70mph near Immokalee. Storm surge was lighter than predicted, and even rain was lighter than predicted, although we will likely continue to have rain for the rest of today. Flooding was also lighter than expected. Most businesses in the area were closed today, but some grocery stores, pharmacies, and even Burger King and Dunkin Doughnuts remained open.

The biggest problem is loss of power for a number of homes, with the last report saying 28,000 homes in Collier County. Power is expected to be restored much faster this time as compared to Wilma in Collier County, and Charlie in Lee County from years past. So in summary, there was very minor damage, despite the efforts of some media to over dramatize the storm. Things are expected to be back to normal by the end of the week.


Despite reports to the contrary Fay has been a bleesing and there was very minimal damage and no tornados in the Collier or Lee county area. Tropical Storm Fay actually has and will have an added benefit of bringing some much needed rain to all of the southeast. Florida and Georgia have been battling Alabama to release water from a reervoir that supplies drinking water to 3 million people. The 4-10 inches will substantially help refill reservoirs and raise lake levels on Lake Okeechobee and surrounding lakes as well as help curb the 2 year drought that has been the 2 driest back to back years on record. Lake Okeechobee as of a month ago was a little more than 4ft below it's average level.

Lake Okeechobee, which is second largest freshwater lake in the contiguous United States and is also the liquid heart of the Everglades. South Florida depends on the 730-square-mile lake during dry periods, when it can be used as a reservoir.

See more on Fay's drought relief at Southwest Florida News


Garren Grup, REALTOR ®...

Noteworty Results in Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!


Monday, July 28, 2008

YTD Market Report - 1st Half 2008

June Market Report for NA (Naples) - BN (Bonita Springs) - ES (Estero)










Closed Sales:
• YTD closed units up 6% from 2007. Volume down approximately 14%.
• Closings for the month of June are essentially same as June 2007 (546 this year vs 550 in June 2007).
• Median sales price down almost 16% compared to YTD June 2007. Average sales price down approximately 19%.
• Closed units under $500,000 represent 70% of all closings YTD. For the same period 2007, this segment represented 61% of closings.
• Closed sales over $1 million represent approximately 13% of the YTD June market. For the same period 2007, this category comprised 17% of all closed sales. (526 properties in 2007 vs 412 in 2008).

Pended Sales:
• June pended sales units are up 46% over June 2007. (Naples up almost 50% and Bonita / Estero up 34%)
• YTD pended sales exceed 2007 by 10%.
• Pended sales over $2 million are down 32% from 2007.
• Pended sales under $500,000 up 36%.

Listings: • Number of new listings taken in June approximately same as June 2007 (1,976 vs 1,974)
• New listings taken YTD June down approximately 5% compared to same period 2007.
• Active listings on July 1, 2008 for combined NA-BN-ES areas is 13,551 (7,055 single family and 6,496 condos).
This represents a 4% decline from May."

*"This report represents the combined Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero market. Numbers may vary among various GEO codes so be sure to research individual market segments carefully.

Disclaimer: All information from Sunshine MLS. Accuracy is deemed correct but not warranted."

View the Full Market Report by Clicking Here

Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!



Thursday, July 24, 2008

Naples Area... "Florida's Last Paradise"

Naples still deserves its real-estate nickname of “Florida’s last paradise” despite the building boom says an AARP article slated for publication in their September/October article labeled "Healthiest Hometowns."

“The area has hung on to its small-town feel: its beaches and art scene (more than 134 galleries in the vicinity) are often voted tops in the nation,” the article says. “And for link lovers, it’s heaven: Naples-Marco Island has the second most golf holes per capita in the country. In our survey, residents got high scores for regular exercise, healthy eating, and not smoking, so it’s no surprise that the area has one of the lowest cancer mortality rates going.”

Not surprisingly, the article mentions the area’s real estate market.
“The downside is high housing prices and a high cost of living,” the articles states. “Naples has been hard hit by the foreclosure crisis — but that means you might be able to find some bargains here.”

Mike Reagen, president of the Naples Area Chamber of Commerce, said the AARP research dovetails with what author Richard Florida said in his best-seller, “Who’s Your City?” where he ranks Naples as among the top 10 places for people 65 and older.

The author and professor of business and creativity at Toronto University says where people choose to live has a profound effect on all aspects of their lives. “It sounds reinforcing,” Reagen said of AARP’s finding about Naples and Marco Island.
In the next two to three years, the next wave of the baby boom generation will be looking for a place to retire and this area will be appealing to many, Reagen said.

The area has great infrastructure of good medical care, the arts, recreational amenities, and an ideal climate that will attract more people, he said.

What Gary Elliott, president of the Marco Island Chamber of Commerce, sees all the time is that people enjoy living in the region, plus they enjoy working here.
“My theory is when people arrive in Naples and Marco Island, they are euphoric,” Elliott said. “People came here with a good attitude.” When people relocate or retire to the region, they came from successful careers and they continue to lead vibrant lives here, he said. That helps with longevity.

He did a survey last month for the Marco chamber and reported that more younger families are moving to Marco, comparing 2000 census data to his own research. He went to the schools on Marco and private schools to find out how many children are now living in Marco.

In 2000, there were 1,622 children under 18 living in Marco and today that figure is 1,900 — a 17 percent increase, he said. While Naples young population has grown exponentially as well triggering the construction of dozens of area schools since 2000 it hasn't been

I think in the next census we will see a lot of younger families,” he said. The Naples area is a "...great place to live."
What’s also notable is the Internet and other technology makes it possible for people who work in consulting and other non-location jobs can live anywhere they want, he said.

Real estate activity in Marco has been solid for properties in the lower price range of under-$350,000 for inland properties, he said.

The AARP finding could help bring more people to Naples/Marco Island for relocating or retiring but Arlene Carozza, Realtor and president of the Naples Area Board of Realtors, said she doesn’t believe this region has more foreclosures than anywhere else and could have less.

“When we get good news like that, that it’s a wonderful place to live, it certainly helps all of us,” she said. “No 10. We will take that. It says something for the area.”

She came from the Orlando area and was amazed by the array of cultural amenities in the area for the city of this size, especially with the Naples Philharmonic Center for the Arts.

“Naples is still small-town like with white sand beaches and gorgeous water and shopping,” she said.

Naples Population:
314,649

Median housing price:
$637,100

Average number of sunny days:
264 per year

Healthy bragging rights:
Long walks on the beach pay off, as residents of this sunny spot score second highest on our longevity scale.

Real estate is selling steadily and has been since January, she said. “We have had a steady upgrowth. More people are purchasing homes and it’s not just the beach area, it’s right across the board,” she said.

Despite that, Naples does have a lot of retirees.

AARP also found Naples/Marco Island ranks second among a larger group of cities for longest life expectancy of 80.97 years, behind Ames, Iowa, with a life expectancy of 81.02. The Collier County Health Department backs up the region’s life expectancy standing, which in 2002 stood at 82.9. Life expectancy for the United States for the same period was 77.4 years, according to a 2002 report from the department. “We are pleased to see the dedication of the health community recognized,” Dr. Joan Colfer, executive director of the health department said in a statement about the AARP finding. She credits the local medical community for lowering cancer rates and adding to residents’ longevity. “In addition, we applaud Collier County citizens for being proactive in their personal health and wellness,” she said.

Ann Gardner, Naples’ community representative for the American Cancer Society, learned of Naples’ standing on the “Good Morning, America” TV show Wednesday and wasn’t surprised. “It’s definitely pretty cool to see that,” she said. “It means people are taking care of themselves.” (Also appeared on the Today Show, see video below.)



See an expanded article on www.NaplesNews.com

See the AARP article at www.AARPmagazine.org


Garren Grup, REALTOR
Delivering Notworthy Results in Naples!



Tuesday, July 22, 2008

What's a blog? ...Customer Service in the 21st Century!

Many of you if not most have heard of a blogging. The practice of stateing information and often times opinions online on a daily basis has exploded. Everyone from youg kids to college students to corporate CEO's seem to be gettting in on the action these days. Providing nearly instantaneous information and feedback has become part of the increasinglty fast paced and technological culture. Blogging allows anyone the ability to reach outside their geographical community and find & communicate with others that share the same interests, opinions and goals. It also provides people resources online that are targeted to a specific interest. Last night an news peice aired on NBC Nightly News about some Fortune 500 companies that are blogging to disseminate information and solicit feedback that may otherwise be too costly. at least 60 Fortune 500 companies have blogs and the number is growing every day! For those that think they are too old or not technical enough to have a blog I can tell you that they are both easy and free!

You can watch the peice by clicking on the video below

The idea of bringing a personal touch through the internet may seem foreign to some. This personal attention in an increasingly corporate and disconnected world is helping to bridge the span between companines and their customers across great distances. As long as it may have been since you sat down and wrote a full letter to someone many miss the personal attention and freedom to express themselves that blog's and the comments they solicit can provide!

For more about blogging and some of the websites that offer this free service please feel free to ask me. Many professions, associations and orginazations have blog sites that are specific but anyone can also set up personal or political ones on sites like this one at www.blogger.com. Other sites include www.Localism.com or for those with company or personal websites on www.MySpace.com they have a good blog function as well!

Happy blogging... & comments Welcome!

Garren Grup, REALTOR... Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero!

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Ben Stein "Were Not in a Recession...They Sell Fear!"

Ben Stein, an economist and the son of an economist who coined the phrase "Voodoo Economics" which you may recall hearing in the way he's better known to some, as the economics teacher in "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" repeating, "Bueller, Bueller!"

This time Ben Stein is trying to wake consumers with some key points:
1) Were not in a recession! (per it's definition of 2 quarters of negative growth)

2) Weak dollar is driving a boom in U.S. exports.

3) The growing economies of China & India are really beginning to drive the world economy.

4) It would be rare for commodities demand to be rising and other services falling at the same time.

5) Inflation is hedged by purchasing "REAL ASSETS"... like Real Estate!















Ben Stein:
Buy Index Funds, Real Estate
Wednesday, July 9, 2008 4:26 PM

Economist and commentator Ben Stein has some calming words of advice: By any serious definition, we're just not in a recession. And we might not enter one, either, regardless of the stock market right now, Stein writes in his online column.

Investors should pretty much ignore all the media talk about bear markets and instead keep investing, particularly through index funds and depressed assets like real estate, he says. Stein points out that bear markets are fairly common. We've had nine by one count since the mid-1960s. But just five actual recessions happened in that same time span. So, a bear market now doesn't mean recession is a done deal, Stein argues.

"That is to say, the stock market predicts 10 out of five recessions. Not such a great record," says Stein.

"The truth is that while the economy is clearly slowing down, we are not yet in a recession."

Stein cites the general rule of two consecutive negative quarters signaling a recession — which hasn’t happened yet, and might not. The U.S. has churned out very, very low growth, but it has stayed positive so far.

"As I keep saying, if anyone can call anything a recession, the whole subject loses all intellectual or factual meaning. This too could happen — a real recession — but it has not happened yet."

Stein says there are plenty of sectors of the economy that show surprising strength, despite the horrid picture painted by the collapse of financials, U.S. automakers, and the airlines.

The weak dollar has helped U.S. exports boom. Mining and agriculture are getting a lift from high commodity prices. Healthcare and the public sector are chugging along. Military spending is likely to be sustained.

"The government is running an immense deficit, and this is stimulative," Stein says.

But it's the larger world — the growing economies of China, India and elsewhere — that is beginning to really drive things. "It would be extremely rare for there to be a spectacular worldwide demand for commodities along with a serious fall in demand for other factors in an economy," Stein says.
"That is, it would be rare for demand to be both rising and falling at the same time. It could happen, but it would be rare."

As for what to do next, Stein says buy. Broad indexes of stocks are a good strategy, and keeping plenty of cash on hand, too. "None of us can control the economy. Thus, we just have to keep swimming in the roiled waters," Stein says.

Economies go through cycles, as always. The headlines will be positive again, soon enough. Buying indexes means investors can ride out the bad news and profit when things turn up.

As for cash, the risk is inflation, Stein warns. In that case, it's better to get into a real asset that’s depressed and thus likely to appreciate.

For instance, insurance giant Prudential has reportedly sold the Chrysler Building in New York to a sovereign wealth fund controlled by the government of Abu Dhabi. The price, according to Bloomberg News, was likely $800 million. Prudential acquired the building when it took control of an Atlanta, Ga. real estate fund, TMW Real Estate Group. That fund bought the Manhattan landmark in 2001 for $300 million.
Prudential's investors have seen a 20 percent return after taxes on this and other real estate sales in recent years, according to a spokesperson for the company. That gain is despite the decline in New York real estate from last year's peak.

"The best bet usually is what has gone down the most, and that, for now, is real estate," Stein writes. Where people fail in real estate, is in failing to buy, he says, citing money manager and friend Phil DeMuth.

Meanwhile, understanding your own reaction to fear — made worse by the media — is the key. "Know that the headline writers want to whip you up and make you crazy about the economy," Stein says. "They sell fear. Stay calm and stay well to do."
© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

See the full article on MoneyNews.com Click Here

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Delivering Information with Noteworthy Results!

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

2nd Quarter Update of Sales & Prices


I wanted to remind people with a photograph of what we all come to Southwest Florida for before providing some information on the market.













...Weather, Beaches, Boating & Sunsets!

This is just a hip shot of the make up of the BN/ES and NA MLS Inventory as of today, July 1st, 2008!

Very interesting numbers for both buyers & sellers!

Total number of listings as of this morning in Bonita/Estero and Naples, all residential types = 13,552

Total number of closed sales over the last 12 months in BN/ES, NA, resid. = 5,362

Current YRS/MNTHS of Inventory in BN/ES and NA, Residential = 2.52 yrs/30.3 mths


Market MakeUp Within Price Ranges BN/ES and NA, All Residential Types

0-250K 4,131 or 30% of the entire inventory

250-350 2,572 or 19% of the entire inventory

350-500 2,282 or 17% of the entire inventory

500-750 1,826 or 13% of the entire inventory

750-1M 992 or 7% of the entire inventory

1M-2M 1,135 or 8% of the entire inventory

2M-3M 442 or 3% of the entire inventory

3M-5M 219 or less than 2%

5M-10M 113 or less than 1%

10M 18 or not that much, in fact as a bonus if you are looking over 10 million we can do it all in a day or two.


Pending sales 2nd Qtr of 07 vs. 2nd Qtr of 08 are up 35%, that is BN/ES and NA, all residential areas.

So 66% of the inventory is below 500k, and a whopping 49% is below 350k.

These are some pretty interesting numbers for those that know the Naples & Bonita Springs market and think prices are still too high.

Hopefully these numbers provide an update on how we stand as of July 1st and further my commitment to providing the most up to date statistics and market news Naples, Bonita Springs & Estero southwest Florida market.

Delivering Noteworthy Results!

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Monday, June 16, 2008

Further Evidence of a Normal Market Return

The May market analysis continues to support the views of many that the Southwest Florida market is steadily improving and has returned to what is considered a “Historical Norm”. It was quite obvious to many that the supply had exceeded demand in Southwest Florida which elevated prices beyond fair market value in 2004 & 2005. In many communities current prices are now below “replacement cost” as some analysts have begun predicting that the credit crunch and negative national housing news is now causing an over correction on the downside in the same way the bubble drove prices up.
See some of my “Property Search Links” on the top right and discover why this is an Award Winning website in the entire state of Florida. It’s always up-to-date, easy to use and interactive for your own preferences.

Additional notes regarding May Market Stats Report:

Average number of closings for the month of May for all years 2000 – 2008 (excluding 2004 and 2005) is 611. May 2008 closings (617) continue to support the theory that the market is returning to historical norms.

May closed sales up 2% over May 2007. JRW closed sales for May up 29%.

In April we reported that YTD pended sales were approximately even with YTD April 2007. In May YTD pended sales jumped ahead of prior year by approximately 6%. JRW YTD May pended sales are up 28% over 2007. We anticipate that the market will continue to gain over 2007 throughout the remainder of the year and will carefully monitor this trend over the summer season.

JRW listings continue to outsell those of other brokers. Through May 2008, 363 JRW listings have closed (through MLS) compared to: Downing Frye 329; Coldwell Banker 256; Premier 229 and Prudential 152.

JRW agents continue to significantly outperform other agents in both average units and average volume produced per agent. There are some very good reasons why this happens and some corresponding benefits to our clients and customers:

(1) JRW employs only full-time, career oriented professionals. Adherence to the highest ethical and professional standards is a condition for continued affiliation. Advantage to clients and customers: Knowledgeable professionals, equipped with the most current information and technology, are actively involved in helping to guide buying and selling decisions.

(2) JRW provides in-house training and professional development opportunities unequalled in the market. Advantage to clients and customers: From the highly experienced to the novice agent, on-going education is provided at all levels. Changes in the market, legal requirements, technology, and marketing all have an impact on the successful sales effort. Our programs continually address all of these areas and more.

(3) JRW professionals have access to the most current market data and statistics. Advantage to clients and customers: The ability to benefit from current, factual information about the market today as well as historical comparisons. Buying and selling decisions can be made based on facts and their relevance to a particular individual situation, rather than on hype or one person’s opinion.

See the exact numbers by clicking here.

Keep up the great Team, and have a Sizzling Summer Selling!!!

Commentary provided by Dorothy D. Babcock, John R. Wood C.O.O.

I look forward to receiving any comments or questions regarding anything on my blog below!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Analysis of differences in home-price reports

A point that I've been adamant about when speaking to clients over the last few months has begun to gain some traction in articles online, in the paper and on NBC-2.com locally as well as CNBC.com. That is, the market here is improving and has probably over corrected for the most part and also that all real estate is local and you need to educate yourself on what is going on in that market. That is not to say nothing else effects it, but how it effects it can be very different. Just because the Midwest is mostly in a slump due to manufacturing their are and will always be people that have the desire and means to purchase in Southwest Florida (Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero, Fort Myers, etc). Opportunity in resort markets and the stock market is often clouded by avarice (or greed). It seems when the market was good the sellers were unreasonable and the buyers were eager to bend to the terms. Since the downturn in the market it now seems to have turned around and many buyers are not only looking for a great buy but they are specifically seeking "blood in the water" to squeezer out every last bit of value. In either respect when was getting what was perceived as a "good value" not enough?

In terms of the difference in housing numbers being reported, A recent article by Matt Carter of Inman News analyzes the differences between the housing numbers reported by OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight), NAR (the National Association of Realtors) and the numbers reported by the S & P/Case-Shiller index. In short, Carter summarizes that their differences are easily explained, and they boil down to this:

1) Case-Shiller and OFHEO look at repeat purchases and exclude new-home purchases, but OFHEO also throws in appraisals that are generated when people refinance their homes. As we have all become very cognizant of lately, what a house will appraise for and what a house will actually sell for on the market can be very different things.

2) OFHEO doesn't consider transactions involving loans that are too big or too risky to be guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, and acknowledges that homes with these mortgages on the upper and lower price ranges are seeing bigger price declines than the homes it tracks.

3) NAR looks at sales of existing homes listed by MLSs, and reports median home prices, which reduces the impact of price volatility in upper price ranges.

The result is that the Case-Shiller index can show more extreme swings in price -- both up and down -- than NAR or OFHEO's numbers.

Read the entire article : Click Here

Refer Garren & Expect Noteworthy Results!

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Markets Stabilize in Southwest Florida

I’ve heard a number of negative comments lately about some of the positive news that has recently been circling on the news and in various articles, some of which are below. I think the best way to respond to those that believe the news media is being over stated is with hard data and figures.

I believe many outside the real estate industry would be surprised to learn that the Naples & Bonita Springs market have seen significant sales over the past 5 months! In the over $1 million market there were 203 single family homes that sold in the first 5 months of this year at an average price just under $2.2 million. At the same time there were 165 condos over $1 million that sold for an average price of $1.8 million. This accounts for nearly $740 million in sales in just the over $1 million price point with the most expensive home selling at $12.9 million and the most expensive condo selling at $9 million. There are certainly both homes and condos that are significantly less that $1 million, but I thought this would illustrate that there are a significant number of sales happening in this market in contrast to many that believe nothing is going on! Also of note was the fact that on average(both single family and condo) properties sold at 89% of their asking price, so on a $2.2 million asking price the property was actually selling at just under $2 million, a $200,000 discount.

The Fort Myers-Cape Coral area has been a little slower in rebounding but home sales spiked in April 2008, up 41% over April 2007, so we are definitely seeing a market improvement.

Prices have been coming down in both markets and this is certainly a big reason for the surge in sales. As you can see above though, the majority of sellers have lowered their asking prices and buyers on average are paying within 11% of asking price. Those seeking to pick up a property at a significant discount over 2005 pricing is possible now as the majority of sellers have lowered their prices to reflect the current market.

There are sales taking place and those in the market to purchase should begin to look and take advantage of the best buys in terms of location, view and designer finishes.

Southwest Florida is the southern most point in the United States with easy access to I-75 and Southwest Florida International Airport. As the mildest climate in the peak winter months it will continue to be a sought after destination. Let me assist you in finding the best buys relative to the current market values and your desires, before the prime properties are picked over.

Warm Regards,

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Click Here for a list of my featured Homes on www.BuyUpNaples.com

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Positive News or Media Hype?

Quite a bit of attention has been focused on the national real estate market in the last few years by both the news media and consumers as we saw prices run up and then come back down. Somewhere along the way, many of us, including those in the real estate business, lost sight of the most important fact. That is, “All Real Estate is local!”
Sure, you have heard that before and the national market certainly has some effect on local real estate. Tuning in to the right information and tuning out the information that really does not apply is increasingly difficult in today’s society when we are bombarded by sooooo many messages. There have been some positive articles both locally and nationally on the Naples real estate market lately. By no means is the market back to the way it was at the peak of the market, nor would any of us want it to be! Sure we want the economy to be better, our homes and vacation properties to be worth more and gas prices to be less.

During the run-up in prices many buyers in this market refused to buy because they couldn’t find what they wanted(lack of inventory) at the “right” price which really meant they wanted to spend less and get more. We all want more for less, it’s just human nature and of course “consumer behavior”. Many of those buyers waited and waited to purchase and watched prices climb out of reach over the past 6 years. Now that we have seen an average decline in prices of 10%-30% sales are on the upswing again as noted in the news (and my previous blogs below). What many don’t realize is that many of the prices in today’s market are actually below the construction cost while still being nearly 30% above where they were in 2002.

Let’s apply a little e logic in our decision making and consider the following. Even if you could duplicate the building today it would cost more than the current prices. Inflation and the growth of emerging economies has strained resources around the world as we’ve all witnessed first-hand at the grocery store and gas pump.
Just as we certainly overshot the prices on the way up, we have now overshot on the way down. Many buyers today refuse to accept that this is possible and waiting on prices to decline with the hope they will continue to defy market economics because of what they are hearing about national housing market. On the other hand many have realized that the abundance of opportunities in the market given that we have significantly more inventory than we did a few years ago. It’s now much easier to find the right property with a great view and location at a reasonable price.

Now back to my original reason for writing this blog. The Naples & Bonita Springs market is primarily a 2nd home market. Those with the desire and means to purchase should be entering the market over the next several months. Those that want a vacation home and are still sitting on the sidelines are making a big gamble with very poor odds. With interest rates expected to rise 1% over the next year due to inflation any further price decline (that some are waiting for) is almost certain to be wiped out by an increase in interest rates. For example the payment on a $300,000 property at 6% interest(30yr) is $1,800. If you were waiting for another $30,000 decrease (10% decline) but the interest rate went up even .5% you only saved $90 per month. Is the risk/reward of losing a property that you really want and is currently available worth the cost of waiting? Only the buyer can answer that question but in these terms it defies the logic of those that remain on the sidelines trying to time when the market has really bottomed out. You can’t time any market, just like the top or bottom of the stock market. All you can do is decide if you have the means and ability to pay for it and if the price is “fair”.

Let me bring some of the logic and statistics above to your real estate transaction and allow me to filter out some of the media hype that is designed to trigger emotions in all of us!
All good real estate consultants analyze the current market based on the past trends (which are the best indicators), what is currently happening in terms of price on comparable properties and what best represents your desires. My loyalty is in providing you with the hard numbers and statistics as well as their interpretation to best inform you so you can make the best decision possible.

I look forward to hearing from you when you’re ready to seek the services of a professional. I welcome any comments and thoughts you have below in the mean time.

Garren Grup, REALTOR

Achieving your real estate desires through technology with Noteworthy Results!

Friday, May 30, 2008

Mortgage rates rise, topping 6%

As expected, and as I have been informing buyers of for a number of months, mortgage rates are expected to rise over the next 12 to 18 months. This is actually expected to happen on TWO different fronts. An increase in inflation (which we’ve all been seeing in gas and food prices) with “no action” by the FED will cause mortgage rates to rise all by themselves as commodity and gas prices climb with the stock market. An additional increase is also expected by the FED in its efforts to keep inflation down and increase the value of the dollar. The FED would be increasing the base rates while the financial markets would need to be increasing the yield to make up for rising inflation. You can read more below in the article or see it on CNNMoney.com.

Freddie Mac says that rates on 30 year fixed mortgages are up on growing concerns about inflation.
Last Updated: May 29, 2008: 12:26 PM EDT


(CNNMoney.com) -- Rates on 30-year mortgages were pushed up this week above 6 percent amid growing concerns about inflation, mortgage backer Freddie Mac said Thursday.
Freddie Mac said 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.08% with an average of 0.6 points, up from 5.98% last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year loan averaged 6.42%.
"Mortgage rates drifted up this week over market concerns that the Federal Reserve Board may raise short-term rates later this year," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, in a statement.
"Indeed," Nothaft added, "market inflation expectations increased over the last few weeks and the federal funds futures market now has a 25 basis point rate hike priced in by the end of the year."
Rising prices
Fanning the concerns about inflation are skyrocketing food and energy prices. On Thursday the average price for a gallon of gas passed $4 per gallon in 11 states, while oil prices rebounded to about $130 a barrel as supplies fell sharply. Also on Thursday, a report from the Labor Department showed that new applications for unemployment insurance rose last week.
And the housing market continues to deteriorate. A report on Tuesday showed that US home prices fell 14.1% in the first quarter, the sharpest decline in 20 years. Additionally, a Census Bureau report out this week found that new home sales remain near a 17-year low.
Rates on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.62 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 5.61 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.19 percent.
The rate for one-year ARMs averaged 5.22 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down slightly from last week when it was 5.24 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.57 percent.


To your Success,

Garren Grup, REALTOR

www.BuyUpNaples.com for the most up-to-date list of Homes available in Southwest Florida. **Listings are updated every 4 hours on this website!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Great Deals? YES! ...Short Sale vs. Foreclosure = Too long a wait for many!

There are most certainly great deals to be had in Southwest Florida! The key is going to be deciding how patient you want to be after finding that right property. Both Sellers and Buyers of "Short Sale" and "Foreclosure" properties need to exercise diligence and patience as well as locate professionals to assist them in expediting the process. Much to the surprise of many, banks are slow, seem disorganized and lack the expertise to properly handle the volume of requests that are coming in from throughout the nation. The article below details some of the problems to expect if you're dealing with one of these short sales or foreclosures.


Banks miss an easy housing fix
Lenders say they want to help troubled homeowners, but they are delaying deals that could save everyone - including the lenders themselves - a lot of time and money.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: May 28, 2008: 11:16 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Banks say they want to help troubled homeowners, but they are delaying deals that could save everyone - including the lenders themselves - a lot of time and money.
Lenders are taking much longer than necessary to approve short sales, according to Duane LeGate, of House Buyers Network, a short sale specialist.
In a short sale, a homeowner who cannot keep up with their loan asks the lender to take a dollar amount less than what is owed on a home's mortgage, and forgive the remainder of the unpaid debt.

So if a borrower has a mortgage balance of $100,000 and finds a buyer who will pay $95,000 for the house, the lender agrees to accept that $95,000 and close out the loan.
"There was a much greater chance of success with these in the past," said LeGate
Ideally in a short sale, everyone wins. Borrowers avoid the ugly foreclosure process that destroys their credit, while lenders recoup more of their costs than they would by spending the time and money it takes to kick an owner out and resell the property.
Lenders typically lose about 19% of a mortgage's value in a short sale, according to Clayton Holdings, a Conn.-based, provider of loan analytics, while they lose an average of 40% on loans that go into foreclosure.

Coldwell Banker CEO Jim Gillespie agrees that short sales are taking too long to complete. And he speaks from firsthand experience; a short-sale offer he made on a house in Marin County, Calif. in late fall didn't win approval until April.
But most buyers can't, or won't, wait that long."That's been our biggest challenge - keeping the buyers interested long enough as we wait and wait for an answer," said Jeff Morrell, a Colorado Springs real estate agent who specializes in short sales.
Running out the clock
John Fitzmorris, a short-sale expediter in East Stroudsburg, Pa., was working with Robson and Laura Pereira, who were behind on their mortgage.
"She worked, but he had a construction business that went defunct," said Fitzmorris. "That put them in trouble."
Falling home prices in the area made a normal sale impossible; the couple was upside-down in their mortgage, owing more on the property than it was worth on the current market.
After they fell behind on their payments, Laura Pereira said, her bank, HSBC (HBC), sent her a letter asking her to call for help. "I called them four or five times and they never got back to me," she said. "We had three [short sale] offers on the house at the time." Later, the loan was sold to First American.
Fitzmorris, who has been doing short sales for more than 20 years, contacted First American (FAF, Fortune 500) about a short sale well before the foreclosure date.
But after three months, the bank still hadn't approved the short sale, and the Pereira's property went to sheriff's sale. (First American declined to comment on specific cases.)
"The offer we sent to the bank was $129,500," said Fitzmorris. "But another investor, TM Builders, bought the property at the sheriff's sale for $100,265."
In the end, the bank lost $60,000 on the loan, when it could have lost $30,000 by doing a short sale.
Ironically, TM Builders flipped the home to Fitzmorris's buyer for the $129,500 short-sale price, money the bank would have gotten had it acted more quickly.
"The sellers did what they could to mitigate the problem but the bank didn't respond, which hurt both the sellers - with an unnecessary foreclosure permanently impacting their credit - and the bank," said Fitzmorris.
Usual suspect
The difficulty in getting short sales approved stems from the same hurdles facing all the other foreclosure prevention efforts. The fact that the majority of mortgages are pooled and securitized makes it hard to get approval to change the terms of the mortgages.
"It has to do with who owns the loan," said LeGate. "If a mortgage is stuck in a pool somewhere, when something goes wrong, no one knows who the actual owner of the note is."
Additionally, the volume of troubled borrowers makes it hard for lenders to keep up. The housing crisis has put an enormous burden on mortgage servicers, the companies that manage loans for securities investors.
At many servicers, said LeGate, "There's no one really skilled at loss mitigation, and these guys have more work than they were prepared to do."
And with foreclosure filings breaking new records each month, there's no sign that this problem will ease any time soon.
Says Laura Pereira, "I feel the bank really let us down."


To make sure your real estate transaction is a smooth and successful one contact a professional that can walk you though the pitfalls as well as provide suggestions on how to expedite the process. A team of experts in the local market will boost your confidence and ease you thorough the process. Let me help you today!

To your Success,

Garren Grup at www.BuyUpNaples.com

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Fort Myers, FL: April Home Sales Up 32% From Last Year

Inventory of unsold homes declining


We have continued to see an increase in sales and the amount of positive press about the local real estate market in Southwest Florida over the past few weeks as new sales data has come in. I think the most interesting statistic to come out is the current absorption of inventory which I think has been under publicized and provides both buyers and sellers with a more comprehensive view of the market. The most current absorption rate for single family homes is 9.9 months considerably lower than the 23 months of inventory that we saw in December 2007.

Special to Florida Weekly-
The Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers & the Beach (which includes Bonita Springs & Estero) reports that a total of 684 existing single family houses were sold in April. That's a 32 percent increase in the number of single family houses sold compared to last April. In addition, 1176 single family homes are pending, reflecting a 47.2 percent upswing since April, 2007. Most encouraging are the absorption(supply in months) rates, as the current absorption rate for single family homes is 9.9 months, well below December 2007 when there was nearly 23 months of inventory up for sale.

The median sales price is $180,000, up 21 percent from 2003 levels, but down from year ago by 16 percent. Moderately priced inventories are moving as buyers are taking advantage of the lower interest rates and the affordable property values in the market. Based on the 4-month trend, it is anticipated that existing single family home sales will out-pace 2007 sales by 30 percent. "It is apparent that buyers are seeing the value of homes in Southwest Florida and are entering the market at increasing numbers."

See additional information at the following links:
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Monday, May 19, 2008

Economic Forecasts Signal Improving Market & Higher Interest Rates Over the Next 18 Months!

The National Association of Business Economics (NABE's) forecast that the credit crunch and housing decline should subside by year end. Inflation is expected to cool while also oil and food prices settle down. They also expect the stock market climbs by 10% in 2009. Of special note in regards to lending and housing, the FED is expected to raise rates by a full percentage point in 2009. With the Naples market in the early stages of a recovery it seems as though any further price decline to benefit potential buyers will be counterbalanced by the FED's effort to counter inflation by increasing interest rates that are currently at historic lows. The best values, prices, properties and inventory will slowly be brought down by the increasing activity that has continued to increase month over month in comparison to 2007 and year-to-date comparisons.


**The May 2008 NABE Outlook presents the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 52 professional forecasters. (See last page for listing.) The survey, covering the outlook for 2008 and 2009, was taken Apr. 17-May 1. The NABE Outlook originated in 1965 and is one of three taken by NABE; the others are the NABE Industry Conditions Survey and the NABE Economic Policy Survey. Founded in 1959, the National Association for Business Economics is the professional association for people who use economics in their work. NABE has more than 2,300 members and 41 chapters nationwide. Lynn Reaser, Bank of America; Robert Fry, DuPont; and Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, conducted the analysis for this report. The views expressed in this report are those of the analysts and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated companies or institutions. May be reprinted in whole or in part with credit given to NABE.

Warm Regards,

Garren Grup, REALTOR

www.BuyUpNaples.com for the most up-to-date list of Homes available in Southwest Florida. **Listings are updated every 4 hours on this website!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

"Naples is Back!"

“Naples is Back!” … This was the declaration of Toll Brothers Home Builders CEO on Tuesday May 13th, 2008 http://www.cnbc.com/id/24600543

The whole segment is interesting but the interview with Robert Toll starts at 4 minutes and specific quote that Naples is Back starts just after 5:20


For months I’ve been having discussions about the incredible values in the Southwest Florida market that are in more cases than not below the cost of construction. The agents, lenders and other local real estate experts I’ve been talking to see the local market gradually getting better. The thing that seems to elude all of us is the number of people that are still holding out to try and time the market. You can no more time the real estate market than you can the stock market. One expert that I spoke with put it best when he said “are buyers waiting for higher prices or higher interest rate!” This rhetorical question best sums up the state of interest rates, the real estate market and the economy. With the Federal Reserve expected to pause in it’s cutting of the Federal funds rate and long term inflation that effects what interest rate you can obtain on a loan expected to continue rising as they have been since mid February there is truly nothing to wait for if you are in the market for a new home in Naples, Bonita Springs or Estero. At this point it is possible that prices could deteriorate a little more but if interest rates are on the rise at the same time any money you save will likely be futile and the best values may slowly be disappearing. National builders have began to raise prices over the last few weeks and one builder that was severely effected in the last year raised prices by 2% over the last several weeks. This was highlighted this week on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money on CNBC when he interviewed Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll. Toll Brothers currently operates in 22 states and for Robert Toll to shatter hopes of a recovery for every city and state that they operate in and elevate Naples is a significant plug for the local market especially given that the Naples area is often lumped in with Miami(South Florida) which has been severely impacted by the dozens of high-rise properties that overbuilt that market.

If you’re in the market for a home, the next several months over the summer will be the best time to pick up one of those great values to take advantage of the low prices and historically low interest rates before they disappear!

The Housing Crisis IS Over!

I know we’ve all heard that the housing crisis was over before but the jitters in the credit markets was an unexpected event that exacerbated the over supply in the year following the housing slump. Southwest Florida began to soften in 2004 following the active hurricane season and the housing market peaked nationwide in July 2005. The effects of almost 4 years of declining home starts, the run up in prices that led to the affordability crisis and the credit crisis, have all helped to bring down the costs of real estate substantially! Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers has many great bargains that in many cases are even below the construction cost.

So, why is the true bottom here and now an opportune time to purchase real estate?
See the article on the market indicators at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html?mod=WSJBlog

Monday, May 12, 2008

5 New Rules for Home Buyers

By Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine
Last Updated: May 12, 2008: 12:39 PM EDT

(Money Magazine) -- There's no telling how long the housing crisis will drag on. Here's what you need to know before you start shopping in a rocky market.

Rule 1: You can't time the bottom
Rule 2: One reason to buy now - mortgage rates
Rule 3: Another reason to buy - rates on big mortgages
Rule 4: Don't buy cheap; buy good schools
Rule 5: Make sure your agent has your interest at heart


See the complete article here at CNNMoney.com

5 New Rules for Home Sellers

Whether you're buying or selling, the real estate game has changed. To win, you've got to learn a new playbook.

By Amanda Gengler, Money Magazine
Last Updated: May 12, 2008: 12:39 PM EDT

(Money Magazine) -- Selling a home is a lot trickier than it used to be - here's how to be smart about pricing, presentation and incentives.

Rule 1: Get real about price
Rule 2: Vet your agent - especially if it's you
Rule 3: Pimp your house - hire a home stager
Rule 4: Cash will make your home look even better
Rule 5: Underwater? Learn to swim


See the complete article here at CNNMoney.com